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Tropical Depression NINE-E Forecast Discussion Number 3

2017-07-22 04:41:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 220240 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 1000 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017 Recent microwave images suggest that Tropical Depression Nine-E has formed a small inner core with good curvature of the low cloud lines. However, deep convection near this feature is currently minimal, with most of the convection well away from the center over the northwestern quadrant. Satellite intensity estimates are in the 25-35 kt range, and based on these and the current state of the central convection, the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The cyclone has good outflow in all directions. The initial motion is 280/12. The depression is south of a mid-level ridge extending from Mexico westward into the northeastern Pacific just west of the Baja California peninsula. This pattern should steer the cyclone generally west-northwestward to northwestward for the next three days or so. After that time, the ridge is forecast to strengthen a little, which should give the tropical cyclone a more westward motion. The track guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, and the new forecast track is similar to the old forecast. This forecast, which lies just north of the various consensus models, keeps the core of the cyclone well south of the coast of Mexico at this time. The environment looks very favorable for strengthening, with the depression forecast to be in light vertical shear and over waters of 28-29C for at least the next 4 days. Based on this, a period of rapid intensification seems likely, but when this will occur is not clear. The intensity guidance shows generally slow strengthening for the next 36 h, and the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index is not unusually high through 36 h. However, the aforementioned inner core suggests that rapid intensification could begin if the convection concentrates around this feature. Given the uncertainty, the intensity forecast is changed little since the previous advisory, showing the system becoming a hurricane just before 48 h and getting to near major hurricane strength by the end of the period. This forecast is above the guidance through 72 h, then is in good agreement with the SHIPS model. It is possible that the current forecast intensities may be too high during the first 36 h and not high enough later in the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 9.4N 95.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 9.7N 97.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 10.7N 99.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 11.8N 101.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 12.8N 102.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 15.0N 105.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 26/0000Z 16.5N 108.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 27/0000Z 18.0N 112.0W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Storm Greg Forecast Discussion Number 18

2017-07-21 22:50:34| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Jul 21 2017

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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Discussion Number 2

2017-07-21 22:47:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 212046 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 400 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017 Although the convection is not very deep at this time, the organization of the cloud pattern has continued to improve with various curved bands wrapping around the center. An average of the objective and subjective Dvorak T-numbers suggest that the winds are still 30 kt. The depression is embedded within an ideal moist environment with low shear and it is moving over warm SSTs. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for strengthening, and the depression could reach hurricane status in about 48 hours or sooner. The intensity forecast is a little above guidance given such a prevailing favorable environment. The best estimate of the initial motion is 280 degrees at 12 kt. The depression is moving around the periphery of a strong subtropical ridge extending from Mexico westward across the Pacific. This flow pattern is likely steer the cyclone between the west and west-northwest during the next 2 to 3 days toward a weakness of the ridge. After that time, the ridge is forecast to amplify and will likely force the cyclone to move with a more westerly component. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one and continues to be in the middle of the track guidance envelope. This forecast keeps the core of the cyclone well south of the coast of Mexico at this time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 9.0N 94.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 9.3N 96.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 10.0N 98.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 11.4N 100.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 12.5N 102.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 14.5N 104.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 16.0N 107.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 26/1800Z 17.5N 111.0W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila

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Tropical Storm Greg Forecast Discussion Number 17

2017-07-21 17:00:32| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 21 2017

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Tropical Depression NINE-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

2017-07-21 16:55:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 211455 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017 Early visible satellite images and recent microwave data indicate that the disturbance that NHC has been tracking for the past few days over the far eastern Pacific has gained enough convective organization and circulation to be designated a tropical depression. The low-level center is difficult to precisely locate, but is estimated to be under the area of deep convection and east of a developing cyclonically curved band. Dvorak estimates are 2.0 and 1.5 from TAFB and SAB, respectively. The initial intensity has been set at 30 kt, but environmental conditions are very favorable for the depression to become a tropical storm later today or Saturday and then a hurricane. Most of the intensity models agree with this scenario and so does the official forecast which follows the consensus quite close. The depression appears to be moving toward the west or 280 degrees at about 12 kt. The cyclone is well embedded within a persistent deep-layer flow associated with a subtropical ridge extending from Mexico westward across the Pacific. This flow pattern is not expected to change much, keeping the cyclone on the same general track well south of the coast of Mexico during the next five days. The NHC forecast is basically in the middle of the guidance envelope and very close to the multi-model consensus TVCN. This is the 5th tropical cyclone in the eastern Pacific basin during this very busy July. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 9.0N 93.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 9.4N 95.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 10.0N 98.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 10.9N 100.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 12.2N 101.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 14.5N 104.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 25/1200Z 16.0N 108.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 26/1200Z 17.0N 112.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila

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