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Hurricane Fernanda Forecast Discussion Number 30
2017-07-19 10:47:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Jul 19 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 190847 TCDEP1 Hurricane Fernanda Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017 200 AM PDT Wed Jul 19 2017 Fernanda's convective cloud pattern has continued to wither, and has been accompanied by a general warming of the cloud tops. The eye is no longer evident in infrared imagery and a 0640Z AMSU overpass indicated that the eye had become open in the southern semicircle. Intensity estimates are a consensus T4.5/77 kt from TAFB and SAB, along with a recent CIRA-AMSU estimate of 82 kt. A blend of these values supports lowering the advisory intensity to 80 kt. The initial motion estimate remains 310/08 kt. Fernanda is forecast to move northwestward today and turn toward the west-northwest by tonight or Thursday. A continuation of that general motion is expected through the end of the forecast period due to a strong subtropical ridge remaining entrenched to the north and northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. The new NHC forecast track is almost on top of the previous advisory track, and lies close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA) and TVCN consensus models. Fernanda is expected to steadily weaken throughout the forecast period. The first 36-48 hours of weakening will primarily be due to the cyclone moving over sub-25C SSTs. Following that will be a sharp increase in southwesterly vertical wind shear to 25-30 kt, causing Fernanda to degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone by 72 hours. The official intensity forecast follows the downward trend of the previous advisory and is similar to the ICON and IVCN consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 17.0N 135.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 17.5N 135.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 18.1N 137.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 18.6N 138.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 19.1N 140.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 20.1N 143.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 23/0600Z 21.1N 147.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/0600Z 22.0N 152.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Greg Forecast Discussion Number 7
2017-07-19 04:53:15| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Jul 18 2017
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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2017-07-19 04:52:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Jul 18 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 190252 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082017 800 PM PDT Tue Jul 18 2017 The depression continues to produce small bursts of deep convection, but microwave data and the last few visible images of the day indicate that the low-level center is exposed to the northeast of the thunderstorm activity. Visible imagery also shows a band of cirrus flowing right over the depression's circulation, indicative of about 25 kt of west-northwesterly shear. Since Dvorak intensity estimates have not changed from six hours ago, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory. The big question mark for both the depression's future track and intensity is how it will interact with Tropical Storm Greg to its east. All the global models show the depression swinging to the southwest and south of Greg during the next several days as the two circulations interact. The GFS model shows Greg becoming the dominant cyclone, with the depression eventually dissipating. However, the ECMWF and Canadian models seem to prefer the depression becoming the dominant system and absorbing Greg. The UKMET is somewhere in between, with the two circulations merging. Since Greg is the stronger of the two systems at this point, we are favoring that being the dominant one, and the new NHC forecast shows the depression weakening over time and dissipating by 96 hours. However, there is a lot of uncertainty in this forecast, and adjustments would be needed if it becomes apparent that the depression will end up being the dominant cyclone. The depression is moving slowly westward with an initial motion of 270/4 kt. Regardless of the cyclone's future intensity, a more pronounced interaction looks increasingly likely, and the track guidance has shifted southward on this forecast cycle. As a result, the updated NHC track forecast has also been shifted south of the previous forecast, and it lies close to the various consensus aids. This solution is not, however, quite as far south as the HWRF, GFS, and HCCA models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 14.8N 119.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 14.6N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 14.2N 121.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 13.7N 122.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 13.2N 122.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 13.3N 123.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Remnants of DON Forecast Discussion Number 6
2017-07-19 04:49:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Jul 18 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 190249 TCDAT5 Remnants Of Don Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052017 1100 PM AST Tue Jul 18 2017 An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft made several passes through the system this evening and was only able to find a sharp wind shift--but no winds with a westerly component. Pressures have also risen, and it appears that Don no longer has a center of circulation. Therefore, Don is being declared an open wave, and this is the last advisory on this system. Based on the aircraft data, the wave is still producing maximum winds of 35 kt west of the Windward Islands over the far southeastern Caribbean Sea. The wave is moving westward at about 22 kt, and it should continue moving quickly westward across the Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days. Due to the system's fast motion, as well as unfavorable atmospheric conditions over the Caribbean Sea, regeneration into a tropical cyclone is not expected at this time. However, the wave is expected to continue producing gales through early Wednesday, and then winds just below gale force for the next couple of days. This is the last advisory on Don, and additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 11.9N 62.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...REMNANTS OF DON 12H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Fernanda Forecast Discussion Number 29
2017-07-19 04:47:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Jul 18 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 190247 TCDEP1 Hurricane Fernanda Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017 800 PM PDT Tue Jul 18 2017 Enhanced Infrared BD-curve GOES-15 imagery indicates considerable cooling of the eye this evening. In fact, the eye has cooled nearly 30 degrees C during the past 6 hours, and is no longer visible in conventional imagery. A blend of Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB yields an initial intensity of 85 kt for this advisory. The cyclone should continue on a steady weakening trend during the next 48 hours as it traverses decreasing oceanic SSTs and moves into a more thermodynamically stable air mass. Toward the end of the forecast period, increasing southwesterly shear associated with a developing cut-off low north of the Hawaiian Islands is expected to further support a gradual spin-down of Fernanda. The NHC intensity forecast reflects weakening to a post-tropical cyclone in 4 days, and further degenerating to a remnant low at day-5. The forecast is again based primarily on the IVCN consensus model. The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 310/8 kt. The NHC forecast track philosophy remains unchanged for this advisory. Fernanda is expected to turn toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours and continue on that general heading through day 5 in response to a subtropical ridge reestablishing to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. The official forecast has been adjusted slightly to the right of the previous advisory and lies close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA), and the GFS/ECMWF (GFEX) model blend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 16.5N 134.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 17.1N 135.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 17.8N 136.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 18.3N 138.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 18.8N 139.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 19.7N 143.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 20.6N 146.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 24/0000Z 21.5N 151.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts
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