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Discussion Draft - Code Reconciliation Project
2017-07-19 02:58:54| PortlandOnline
Code Reconciliation Project - Discussion Draft for public review and feedback through August 28, 2017 PDF Document, 3,670kbCategory: 2035 Comprehensive Plan Code Reconciliation Project
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Hurricane Fernanda Forecast Discussion Number 28
2017-07-18 22:38:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Jul 18 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 182038 TCDEP1 Hurricane Fernanda Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017 200 PM PDT Tue Jul 18 2017 Somewhat surprisingly, Fernanda has made a small comeback this afternoon as its eye has become distinct in the visible satellite imagery in the midst of a ragged ring of very cold cloud tops. Subjective Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB and the objective ADT have increased some, so an initial intensity of 90 kt is analyzed. The hurricane is moving toward the northwest at 7 kt. Fernanda's motion is being influenced by a deep-layer subtropical ridge to its northeast and a mid-level trough to its northwest. In a couple of days, the trough lifts out and a mid-level ridge builds in north of Fernanda causing the tropical cyclone to turn back toward the west-northwest or west. The track guidance is tightly clustered for the first couple of days but at the extended range the guidance shows more spread, especially along the track. The official track forecast is based upon the TVCN multi-model track consensus and is nearly identical to the previous advisory. Fernanda is expected to steadily weaken during the next couple of days as it ingests stable, dry air over increasingly cooler SSTs. In two to three days, southwesterly vertical shear should substantially increase and further contribute to Fernanda's weakening. By days 4 and 5, the winds from Fernanda may be augmented some by a strong pressure gradient setting up north of the tropical cyclone. The official intensity forecast - nearly the same as from the previous advisory - is based upon the IVCN multi-model intensity consensus. Once again, no scatterometer or AMSU size measurements have been available recently, so the initial and forecast wind radii have been maintained. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 16.0N 133.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 16.7N 134.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 17.3N 135.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 17.9N 137.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 18.3N 139.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 19.0N 142.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 22/1800Z 20.0N 146.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 23/1800Z 20.5N 150.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Tropical Storm Don Forecast Discussion Number 5
2017-07-18 22:37:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Jul 18 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 182037 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Don Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052017 500 PM AST Tue Jul 18 2017 Deep convection associated with Don has continued to pulse near the alleged center today, with an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity over the northern and northwestern portions of the system. These rains have started to spread over the Windward Islands, and sustained winds of 25 to 30 kt have been reported at Barbados during the past few hours. Satellite, microwave, and surface data continue to suggest that the circulation of the system is likely not closed. Another reconnaissance aircraft mission is scheduled this evening, which should help to determine if Don is still a tropical cyclone. The anticipated westward acceleration of the system seems to have occurred, with the initial motion now westward or 275/19 kt. Don or its remnants should continue to move briskly westward during the next day or so in the fast trade wind flow over the southeastern Caribbean Sea. Increasing westerly shear, dry mid-level air, and the fast westward motion of the system are likely to cause the tropical storm to degenerate into a trough of low pressure by late Wednesday, if not sooner. Given the fast forward speed, the remnants are likely to continue producing wind gusts to near tropical storm force over the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 11.7N 60.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 11.9N 63.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 12.0N 67.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2017-07-18 22:35:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Jul 18 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 182035 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082017 200 PM PDT Tue Jul 18 2017 Strong northwesterly shear continues over the depression with deep convection confined to the southern portion of the circulation. Recent visible satellite images also show that there are a couple of low-level vorticity centers rotating about the mean center. A recent ASCAT pass that caught the eastern portion of the depression only revealed winds of around 20 kt. However, the initial intensity will remain a possibly generous 30 kt for this advisory since the instrument did not sample the area of strongest convection to the southwest of the center. The strong vertical wind shear currently over the cyclone is expected to continue during the next day or two, and the official forecast show no strengthening during this time. In about 3 days, a more favorable upper-level pattern could materialize, but given the uncertainty about the structure of the tropical cyclone at that time and the potential interaction of nearby Tropical Storm Greg, the NHC intensity forecast does not reflect much change in wind speed. The initial motion estimate is 270/4. The track forecast remains quite uncertain as the models show some interaction between the depression and Tropical Storm Greg. Most of the models indicate that the depression will move slowly southwestward during the next couple of days until Greg passes to the north in about 72 hours. After that occurs, the cyclone should begin to move west- northwestward at a faster forward speed under the influence of a low- to mid-level ridge that is predicted to extend westward from northwestern Mexico. Due to the expected complex interaction between, and possible merger of, the two tropical cyclones the forecast track of the depression remains quite low. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 14.9N 119.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 14.7N 120.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 14.4N 120.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 14.0N 121.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 13.7N 122.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 13.7N 123.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 22/1800Z 14.0N 126.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 23/1800Z 14.5N 131.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm GREG Forecast Discussion Number 6
2017-07-18 22:34:46| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Jul 18 2017
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