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Hurricane Fernanda Forecast Discussion Number 33
2017-07-20 04:38:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Jul 19 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 200238 TCDEP1 Hurricane Fernanda Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017 800 PM PDT Wed Jul 19 2017 Fernanda's cloud pattern has continued to decay with shrinking and weakening convection, while microwave imagery suggests that the inner core has collapsed. In fact, it appears that the mid- and low- levels are beginning to separate. Intensity estimates from all agencies reflect such decay, and based on Dvorak T-numbers, the maximum winds have been reduced to 65 kt, and this could be generous. A large portion of the circulation is already over cooler waters, and this factor, in combination with increasing shear and the presence of dry air should result in additional weakening, as indicated in the NHC forecast. Fernanda is moving toward the west-northwest or 300 degrees at 8 kt. The cyclone is well embedded within the deep trade winds associated with the southern portion of the subtropical high. This steering pattern will likely persist, so no significant change in track is anticipated. A slight turn toward the west is expected by the end of the forecast period when Fernanda will likely be a shallow cyclone steered by the low-level trades. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one and follows very closely the multi-model consensus TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 18.2N 137.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 18.6N 138.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 19.0N 140.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 19.6N 141.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 20.2N 143.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 21.5N 146.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/0000Z 22.5N 151.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/0000Z 23.5N 156.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Greg Forecast Discussion Number 11
2017-07-20 04:36:52| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2017
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Tropical Depression Eight-E Forecast Discussion Number 7
2017-07-20 04:34:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Jul 19 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 200234 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082017 800 PM PDT Wed Jul 19 2017 The depression has changed little in structure since the last advisory. Small bursts of convection have been pulsing near the center of circulation, with a band extending to the southwest. The initial intensity remains 25 kt, mainly because there has been no new data to suggest otherwise. The initial motion is slowly west-southwestward, or 245/5 kt. The depression is expected to be steered around the western side of Tropical Storm Greg's circulation during the next couple of days, which will induce a slow southwestward to southward motion. The track models have locked into this scenario, and the new NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one. Water vapor imagery continues to show the depression being blasted by strong upper-level winds to the south of a large upper-level low, which is resulting in about 15 kt of shear. Although the cyclone could escape some of this shear while it moves southward around Greg, the damage will probably already be done by that point. Since the convection is already losing organization, and the global models show the cyclone's circulation being disrupted by Greg soon, the depression is expected to degenerate to a remnant low by 36 hours, if not sooner. The remnant circulation should then dissipate south or southeast of Greg by day 3. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 13.9N 122.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 13.4N 122.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 12.7N 123.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 12.0N 123.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 22/0000Z 11.9N 123.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Fernanda Forecast Discussion Number 32
2017-07-19 22:40:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Jul 19 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 192040 TCDEP1 Hurricane Fernanda Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017 200 PM PDT Wed Jul 19 2017 Fernanda continues to slowly weaken, with the convection gradually decreasing in coverage and intensity due to cool sea surface temperatures and increasing shear. The initial intensity is reduced to 70 kt based on a blend of the various satellite intensity estimates, and this value is on good agreement with the CIMSS satellite consensus. The initial motion is now 300/7. Fernanda is expected to continue this motion through 72 h as it is steered by a strong low- to mid-level ridge to the north. This ridge is forecast to persist after 72 h. However, the guidance continues to show divergence during that time, with the models that forecast Fernanda to weaken more quickly showing a more westward motion. One change in the guidance since the last advisory is that the GFS and the HWRF show a more westward motion after 72 h than previously, and this has helped shift the consensus models southward to near the old forecast track. Based on this, the new forecast track is changed little since the previous advisory, and lies near the current runs of the consensus models. Fernanda is expected to steadily weaken through the forecast period due to various combinations of cool sea surface temperatures, southwesterly to southerly shear, and dry air entrainment. One change from the previous advisory is to keep the system as a tropical cyclone at 72 h based on the GFS and ECMWF forecasting associated organized convection at that time. Otherwise, the new intensity is similar to the previous forecast and in good agreement with the intensity consensus. The initial and forecast wind radii have been revised based on a just-received scatterometer overpass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 17.7N 136.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 18.1N 137.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 18.7N 139.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 19.2N 140.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 19.7N 142.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 21.0N 145.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 22.0N 149.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/1800Z 23.0N 155.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Eight-E Forecast Discussion Number 6
2017-07-19 22:33:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Jul 19 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 192033 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082017 200 PM PDT Wed Jul 19 2017 Visible images confirm that the depression is not very well organized with limited banding features and a partially exposed center. ASCAT and satellite classfications suggest that the winds have dropped to 25 kt, and this will be the initial wind speed. Cirrus cloud motions show that the northwesterly shear continues to impinge on the depression. While this shear could abate somewhat tomorrow, it is likely to quickly resume again by Friday due to enhanced upper-level outflow from Tropical Storm Greg. Thus little change in intensity is shown in the new NHC intensity forecast, in line with the latest guidance, with some weakening expected on Friday. It would not be surprising if the circulation of the depression opened up into a trough during the next day or two. The initial motion of the depression is west-southwest at 5 kt. The system should move to the southwest or south-southwest around the circulation of Tropical Storm Greg for the next day or two. Model guidance has come into better agreement that Greg will be the dominant cyclone, and the track is shifted southward from the previous one. By 72 hours, all of the global models open up the depression into a trough as the weak system gets pulled northwestward toward Greg. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 14.1N 121.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 13.6N 122.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 12.9N 122.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 12.3N 123.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 12.0N 123.5W 20 KT 25 MPH 72H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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