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Post-Tropical Cyclone Eugene Forecast Discussion Number 21
2017-07-12 22:41:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Jul 12 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 122040 TCDEP5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Eugene Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017 200 PM PDT Wed Jul 12 2017 Eugene has succumbed to the effects of the cool, dry airmass in which it has become embedded. Organized deep convection dissipated earlier today and is unlikely to resume due to the system moving over progressively colder waters west of Baja California. Thus Eugene has become a post-tropical cyclone. An 1814Z ASCAT scatterometer pass measured maximum winds of about 30 kt. These winds will gradually subside and by day 3 or 4 Eugene's circulation is likely to open up into a trough. Eugene's remnant low is moving toward the northwest at 9 kt, steered around the periphery of a low to mid-level subtropical ridge over northwestern Mexico. This motion should continue for the next couple of days, then slow with a turn toward the west-northwest by day 3. The track forecast is slightly west of the previous advisory and is based upon the HCCA corrected consensus technique. Swells generated by Eugene affecting portions of the west coast of northern Baja California peninsula and southern California will be diminishing on Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 24.1N 122.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 13/0600Z 24.9N 123.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 13/1800Z 25.9N 124.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 14/0600Z 26.8N 125.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/1800Z 27.7N 126.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/1800Z 28.5N 128.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Tropical Storm FERNANDA Forecast Discussion Number 4
2017-07-12 22:39:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Jul 12 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 122039 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Fernanda Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017 300 PM MDT Wed Jul 12 2017 Fernanda has changed little in organization since the last advisory, as the center continues to be near the northeastern edge of the central convection and outer bands persist in the southwestern semicircle. Recent scatterometer data indicated maximum winds near 35 kt, and that remains the initial intensity based on the scatterometer and various satellite intensity estimates. The scatterometer data also showed the Fernanda is currently a small cyclone, with tropical-storm-force winds extending no more than 20 n mi from the center. The initial motion is now 265/8. Deep-layer ridging north of the cyclone is steering it a little south of due west, and the ridge is expected to strengthen and build westward during the next several days. Thus, a westward or south of westward motion is likely for the first 72 h. After that, Fernanda should approach a weakness in the ridge caused by a mid- to upper-level trough over the central Pacific, and in response it is expected to turn west-northwestward by 120 h. The new forecast track is again similar to, but a little south of the previous track. It lies a little north of the consensus models through 72 h and south of them at 96-120 h. The cyclone is still feeling the effects of 10-15 kt of vertical wind shear at this time. The large-scale models continue to forecast the shear to subside over the next 24 h or so and then remain light through the remainder of the forecast period. That, combined with 28-29C sea surface temperatures along the first 96 h of the forecast track, should allow the system to intensify. After 96 h, the expected more northward motion would bring Fernanda over decreasing seas surface temperatures, which would likely stop intensification. The new forecast is again similar to the previous forecast and is in best agreement with the intensity consensus. There remains a possibility that rapid intensification could occur after the shear subsides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 11.8N 112.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 11.8N 113.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 11.7N 115.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 11.6N 117.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 11.5N 119.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 11.5N 124.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 12.0N 128.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 17/1800Z 13.0N 133.0W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Memo Accountability Focus Group's Key Areas of Discussion with Exhibits
2017-07-12 17:50:37| PortlandOnline
PDF Document, 1,800kbCategory: Policy and Protocols Workgroup
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Tropical Depression Eugene Forecast Discussion Number 20
2017-07-12 16:52:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Jul 12 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 121452 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Eugene Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017 800 AM PDT Wed Jul 12 2017 Eugene is not quite ready to quit. Deep convection continues in the northeastern quadrant of the system, though this is not very deep nor extensive. Given the spin-down likely occuring since the overnight ASCAT scatterometer pass as well as the Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB, the intensity is assessed at 30 kt, downgrading Eugene to a tropical depression. The system should lose deep convection shortly as it moves over 21C SSTs and become a remnant low by tonight. By day 3 or 4, Eugene's circulation is likely to open up into a trough. The intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory. The tropical depression is moving toward the northwest at 9 kt, steered around the periphery of a low to mid-level subtropical ridge over northwestern Mexico. This motion should continue for the next couple of days, then slow by day 3 before dissipation. The track forecast is slightly east of the previous advisory at days 2 and 3 and is based upon the TVCN multi-model consensus. Swells generated by Eugene will continue to affect the west coast of northern Baja California peninsula and southern California during the next day or two, causing dangerous surf and rip current conditions. Please refer to statements issued by your local weather office for additional information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 23.6N 121.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 24.4N 122.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 13/1200Z 25.5N 123.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 14/0000Z 26.4N 124.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/1200Z 27.3N 126.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/1200Z 28.5N 127.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Tropical Storm FERNANDA Forecast Discussion Number 3
2017-07-12 16:49:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Jul 12 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 121449 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Fernanda Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017 900 AM MDT Wed Jul 12 2017 Convection associated with Tropical Depression Six-E has become better organized during the past several hours. While the cyclone is still being affected by northeasterly vertical wind shear, an area of convection has formed over the low-level center and outer convective bands are present in the southwestern semicircle. An average of various satellite intensity estimates is 35 kt, and based on this the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Fernanda. The initial motion is 270/9. Deep-layer ridging north of the cyclone is steering it generally westward, and the ridge is expected to strengthen and build westward during the next 4-5 days. Based on this evolution, Fernanda should move generally westward or south of westward through at least 72 hours, with a north of west motion expected thereafter. There has been little change in the guidance since the previous advisory, and the new forecast track is similar to, but slightly south of, the previous forecast. The large-scale models suggest that the current shear should subside over the next 24 h or so and then remain light through the remainder of the forecast period. That, combined with 28-29C sea surface temperatures along the forecast track, should allow the system to intensify. As seen in the previous advisory, the new intensity forecast calls for gradual strengthening during the first 24-36 h, followed by a faster rate of development from 36-72 h. The new forecast is similar to the previous forecast and is in best agreement with the intensity consensus. It should be noted that while the environment is not currently conducive for rapid intensification, it may become more favorable once the shear decreases. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 12.0N 111.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 12.0N 112.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 12.0N 114.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 11.9N 116.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 11.7N 118.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 11.5N 123.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 16/1200Z 12.0N 128.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 17/1200Z 13.0N 133.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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