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Tropical Storm FRANK Forecast Discussion Number 1
2016-07-21 22:34:13| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 400 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2016
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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Forecast Discussion Number 25
2016-07-21 16:33:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU JUL 21 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 211433 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 800 AM PDT THU JUL 21 2016 Estelle continues to feature a small area of deep convection mainly to the northwest of the estimated low-level center location. The initial intensity remains 50 kt based on a blend of the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Weakening is forecast since Estelle will be moving over cooler SSTs and the shear is expected to increase. These factors should result in Estelle losing organized deep convection and becoming post-tropical in 24 to 36 hours. The remnant low of Estelle should dissipate in 4 or 5 days. The initial motion estimate is 285/13, as Estelle is being steered by a mid-level ridge centered well to the east over the south- central United States. Estelle should continue moving around the periphery of the ridge and turn northwestward by 48 hours, and this northwestward motion should continue through dissipation. The new NHC track forecast is a little left of the previous one through 48 hours and is near the latest TVCN consensus. A larger westward adjustment was made at days 3 and 4, trending toward a leftward shift in the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 20.1N 128.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 20.8N 130.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 21.9N 132.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 23.3N 135.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 23/1200Z 24.8N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 24/1200Z 27.5N 142.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/1200Z 30.0N 146.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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PfW and EI host roundtable discussion to encourage more women to join energy sector
2016-07-21 01:00:00| Power Technology
The UKs Energy Institute (EI) has hosted a roundtable discussion with POWERful Women (PfW) organisation to discuss issues faced by women working in the global energy sector.
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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Forecast Discussion Number 21
2016-07-20 16:36:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT WED JUL 20 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 201436 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 800 AM PDT WED JUL 20 2016 Estelle has generally changed little since the previous advisory. The convective pattern still consists of a well organized curved band that covers much of the eastern half of the circulation and fragmented bands to the west of the center. The initial wind speed is held at 60 kt for this advisory, which is an average of the Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. Estelle is crossing the 26 deg C isotherm and will be moving over progressively cooler water during the next few days. In addition, the storm will also be moving into an atmosphere of drier air and increasing westerly shear. Given these expected environmental conditions, steady weakening is forecast during the period, and Estelle will likely become a post-tropical cyclone in about 2 days when it is over SSTs around 22 deg C. The storm is moving westward at about 11 kt on the southwest side of a large subtropical ridge centered over the southern United States. Estelle is forecast to reach the western periphery of the ridge in a couple of days, which should induce a turn to the northwest. A northwestward motion is expected to continue until the system dissipates in 4 to 5 days. The models are in good agreement on this overall scenario, and the new NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one. This track prediction is in best agreement with a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 19.2N 123.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 19.5N 125.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 20.2N 128.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 21.0N 130.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 22.1N 133.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 23/1200Z 25.6N 137.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/1200Z 29.4N 141.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm DARBY Forecast Discussion Number 36
2016-07-20 16:35:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT WED JUL 20 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 201435 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016 800 AM PDT WED JUL 20 2016 Darby continues to be relatively steady state, with convective cloud tops of -50C to -60C near the center. An AMSR2 pass at 1017Z showed that the low-level center is located southwest of the mid-level center seen in geostationary imagery. The initial intensity is set to 50 kt based on a blend of the latest Dvorak estimates of T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and T3.0/45 kt from SAB. Darby will move over slightly warmer waters in the next couple of days, but this should be counteracted by moderate southwesterly shear and a generally dry atmospheric environment. The SHIPS and LGEM models show steady weakening, while the dynamical models are showing some restrengthening through 48 hours. Given this, the official forecast continues to show little change in intensity during the first 48 hours. The shear increases late in the period while SSTs will cool below 26C along the track, which should result in some slow weakening. The new NHC forecast is close to the latest intensity consensus aid. The initial motion estimate is 270/10. Darby is expected to move a little south of due west for the next 48 hours under the influence of a mid-level ridge building southeastward from north of the Hawaiian Islands. After that time, a break in the ridge develops as an upper-level low retrogrades westward well north of Hawaii, which should cause Darby to turn sharply northwestward by day 4 and then north-northwestward on day 5. Most of model guidance remains in good agreement on this track scenario, however, there are still some forward speed differences late in the period. The ECMWF and UKMET are faster by days 4 and 5, while the GFS and GEFS ensemble mean are slower. Also, the latest HWRF is well south and west of the rest of the guidance envelope. The new NHC track forecast is near the previous one through 48 hours and has been shifted a little to the left after that time, and lies between the GFS and ECMWF solutions and their respective ensemble means. The next advisory on Darby will be issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 19.9N 139.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 19.7N 141.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 19.4N 144.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 19.0N 146.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 18.8N 148.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 19.0N 152.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 24/1200Z 20.5N 153.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 25/1200Z 24.0N 155.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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