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Tropical Storm GEORGETTE Forecast Discussion Number 7

2016-07-23 10:33:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 23 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 230833 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 23 2016 Georgette's convective canopy has expanded and become a little more symmetric over the past few hours. An 0515 UTC AMSU pass revealed a mid-level microwave eye, but this feature appeared to be displaced to the west of the low-level center by more than half a degree of longitude. Based on Dvorak estimates of T3.5 from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity remains 55 kt. SHIPS guidance indicates that a little more than 15 kt of easterly shear is still affecting Georgette. However, the shear is expected to gradually diminish, falling below 10 kt in 18-24 hours, and sea surface temperatures should remain higher than 26C for about the next 48 hours. Therefore, slow strengthening is anticipated at first, with a faster intensification rate likely once the shear has abated. Since little to no shear is expected in 36-48 hours, the NHC intensity forecast is at the top end of the guidance spectrum, closest to the HWRF model. After 48 hours, steady weakening is anticipated due to cooler SSTs, increasing shear, and a drier atmosphere. The low-level center has been tough to locate tonight, so an initial motion of 290/11 kt is maintained for continuity's sake. The strong mid-level ridge to the north of Georgette is expected to weaken and shift to a position between California and Hawaii during the next few days. Georgette should therefore turn northwestward and slow down after 36 hours. There is very little spread among the track guidance during the entire forecast period, and the updated NHC track forecast is nudged a little north and east of the previous forecast in deference to the GFS and ECMWF models, which lie on the right-hand side of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 13.5N 120.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 14.0N 121.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 14.8N 123.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 15.8N 125.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 16.7N 126.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 26/0600Z 18.0N 128.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 27/0600Z 19.0N 130.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 28/0600Z 20.0N 132.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm GEORGETTE Forecast Discussion Number 6

2016-07-23 04:35:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI JUL 22 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 230235 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016 800 PM PDT FRI JUL 22 2016 This evening's satellite presentation has revealed some deterioration of the cloud pattern. Georgette's earlier impressive, banding-eye feature is no longer present, and recent microwave images indicate a more sheared, tilted structure. Apparently, modest northeasterly shear has once again returned and has partially exposed the center of circulation to the east of the strongest convection. The initial intensity is held at 55 kt for this advisory and is based on Dvorak intensity estimates of T3.5 from TAFB and SAB. The large-scale guidance and the SHIPS model all show the shear lingering for the next 24 hours or so. Subsequently, only modest strengthening is reflected, but all the statistical-dynamical guidance show Georgette still becoming a hurricane in 12 hours. The intensity models indicate further strengthening through mid-period, then agree on a gradual weakening trend through day 5. The official forecast follows this scenario and is based on the combination of the IVCN multi-model consensus and the stronger HWRF hurricane model. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwest at 290/11. A mid- to upper-level ridge extending westward over the eastern Pacific from the southwestern United States should continue to steer Georgette in this general direction for the next 36 hours. Afterward, a retrograding upper-tropospheric trough, embedded in the deep-layer easterly flow south of the ridge axis, is expected to temporarily disrupt the steering flow just enough to cause Georgette to decrease in speed and turn toward the northwest. Late in the period, the ridge should reestablish north of the cyclone and turn Georgette back toward the west-northwest. The NHC forecast is quite similar to the last one, and closely follows the TVCN multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 13.2N 119.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 13.7N 120.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 14.3N 122.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 15.0N 124.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 16.0N 125.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 17.5N 127.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 27/0000Z 18.4N 129.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 28/0000Z 19.4N 131.6W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts

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Tropical Storm FRANK Forecast Discussion Number 6

2016-07-23 04:33:51| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 900 PM MDT FRI JUL 22 2016

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Tropical Storm FRANK Forecast Discussion Number 5

2016-07-22 22:37:18| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 300 PM MDT FRI JUL 22 2016

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Tropical Storm GEORGETTE Forecast Discussion Number 5

2016-07-22 22:35:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 22 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 222035 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 22 2016 Georgette has continued to strengthen today. A small central dense overcast is present in geostationary imagery with a well-defined low-level eye seen in a 1415Z WindSat pass. A hint of an eye was also noted in earlier visible imagery. The initial intensity is set at 55 kt based on the latest TAFB Dvorak estimate of T3.5/55 kt and the UW-CIMSS ADT of T3.4/53 kt at 18Z. It appears that the shear has relaxed at least somewhat over the cyclone today, and the SSTs of over 28C should be conducive for at least steady intensification in the next 36 to 48 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast has again been adjusted upward and is above the intensity consensus and close to the LGEM model. Note that the HWRF shows more rapid intensification in the short range, which is possible. Later in the forecast period the SSTs gradually cool, which should result in steady weakening at days 3 through 5. The initial motion is now a little faster toward the west-northwest at 295/13. Georgette should continue on this heading for the next 48 hours while being steered by a subtropical ridge centered to the northeast. After that time an upper-level low will undercut the ridge northwest of the tropical cyclone, which should result in a slower motion toward the northwest at days 3 and 4, followed by a turn back toward the west-northwest at day 5 as the ridge rebuilds. The new NHC track forecast is along the previous one but is again faster during the first 72 hours following the guidance trend. Late in the period the new NHC track is a little to the left of the previous one and is close to the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 12.8N 118.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 13.4N 119.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 14.0N 121.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 14.6N 123.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 15.5N 125.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 17.0N 127.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 18.0N 129.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 19.0N 131.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan

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