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Tropical Storm CELIA Forecast Discussion Number 30
2016-07-14 04:37:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED JUL 13 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 140237 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016 800 PM PDT WED JUL 13 2016 After Celia was nearly devoid of deep convection earlier today, infrared satellite images indicate that convection has made a bit of comeback over the northern portion of the circulation. The initial intensity is being held at 45 kt, which is in agreement with the Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, and a partial ASCAT-B pass from a few hours ago. Celia is currently over cool 24 C waters, and although the waters could warm a little along the forecast track, they are expected to stay below 26 C. In addition, the tropical cyclone will be moving into an environment of increasing westerly shear and drier air. These conditions should cause weakening, and the official forecast shows Celia degenerating into a remnant low by 36 hours. The global models suggest that the remnant low could persist for several days over the central Pacific. The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at 11 kt, and is being steered on the southwestern periphery of a sprawling mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico and the southern United States. A westward turn is expected in a day or two, when Celia becomes a shallow system and is steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The models are tightly clustered, and the NHC official track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 19.9N 134.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 20.8N 136.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 21.5N 138.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 21.9N 140.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/0000Z 22.2N 143.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/0000Z 22.9N 148.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/0000Z 23.6N 152.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/0000Z 24.5N 157.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane DARBY Forecast Discussion Number 10
2016-07-14 04:37:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT WED JUL 13 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 140237 TCDEP5 HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016 900 PM MDT WED JUL 13 2016 Darby has developed a large CDO pattern and a 2314Z SSMI/S microwave pass indicated a 15-20 nmi diameter eye embedded in the center of the central dense overcast. Subjective intensity estimates are a consensus T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and SAB, and the latest UW-CIMSS ADT and AMSU estimates were T4.4/75 kt and 72 kt, respectively. The advisory intensity of 70 kt is based on an average of these values. The initial motion estimate is 280/10 kt. The expansive deep-layer ridge to the north of Darby is forecast by the global models to remain entrenched across the eastern and central Pacific for the next several days, which should act to keep Darby moving in a general westerly direction throughout the 5-day forecast period. Other than some differences in forward speed, there remains very little cross-track difference noted among the more reliable models. The new official track forecast is essentially just an extension of the previous advisory track, and lies close to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF model solutions. Darby is expected to encounter the most favorable combination of atmospheric and oceanic conditions during the next 24 hours or so, and steady intensification is forecast as a result during that time. By 36-48 h, Darby will be moving across cooler SSTs near 26 deg C and into a drier airmass, so leveling off of the intensity is expected. Steady weakening is forecast to begin after that time as the hurricane moves over 25-26 deg C SSTs. However, the weakening rate is expected to be a little slower than normal due to low vertical wind shear conditions that both the GFS and ECMWF models are forecasting to affect Darby between 72-120 h. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast, and closely follows the SHIPS intensity forecast guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 15.6N 114.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 15.9N 116.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 16.3N 119.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 16.7N 121.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 17.0N 123.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 17.5N 127.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 18.1N 131.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 19/0000Z 18.9N 136.4W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane DARBY Forecast Discussion Number 9
2016-07-13 22:38:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT WED JUL 13 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 132038 TCDEP5 HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016 300 PM MDT WED JUL 13 2016 Darby is taking on a different shape as the vertical shear gradually decreases. Convective bursts with overshooting tops have been occurring near the center, and a broken band of convection wraps around the southern and western part of the circulation. Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates are unanimously T4.0, and Darby is therefore being upgraded to a 65-kt hurricane. Ocean temperatures near Darby are between 28-29 degrees Celsius, and even though SSTs decrease some out ahead of the hurricane, microwave data suggest that the ocean is warming up after the passages of Blas and Celia. Vertical shear is also expected to be low during the next few days, and Darby should continue strengthening for the next 36-48 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is not too different from the previous forecast, and it is near or just above the upper bound of the intensity guidance. The latest fixes indicate that Darby is beginning to gain latitude again, and the 12-hour average motion is 270/10 kt. Mid-level ridging to the north of the hurricane is expected to change very little over the next five days, and Darby should therefore maintain a consistent westward track through the forecast period. The track guidance has shifted a little to the north on this cycle, and there is very little cross-track difference noted among the models. However, there are some along-track speed differences, with the ECMWF showing a faster motion due to a stronger depiction of the mid-level ridge. The updated NHC track forecast has been nudged northward and is a little faster than the previous forecast, lying close to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 15.4N 113.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 15.6N 115.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 16.0N 117.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 16.4N 120.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 16.8N 122.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 17.3N 126.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 17.8N 130.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 18/1800Z 18.5N 135.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm CELIA Forecast Discussion Number 29
2016-07-13 22:35:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT WED JUL 13 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 132035 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016 200 PM PDT WED JUL 13 2016 Deep convection associated with Celia has practically vanished, and consequently the Dvorak subjective and objective T-numbers have continued to decrease. However, the cyclone still has a vigorous circulation, and the best estimate of the initial intensity is 45 kt. The circulation of Celia is moving over waters of about 24 degree Celsius and cooling, while the wind shear is forecast to gradually increase. These conditions will result in additional weakening, and Celia is expected to degenerate into a tropical depression in about a day, and into a remnant low soon thereafter. The NHC forecast is following SHIPS guidance. The cyclone appears to be moving toward the west-northwest or 300 degrees at 11 kt around the periphery of the subtropical ridge. Given that Celia is already weakening and becoming a shallow system, it will be steered by the low-level flow on a general west to west-northwest track for the next several days until dissipation. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 19.5N 133.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 20.3N 135.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 21.2N 137.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 21.7N 139.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 15/1800Z 22.0N 142.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 16/1800Z 22.5N 147.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 17/1800Z 23.5N 151.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/1800Z 24.0N 156.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm CELIA Forecast Discussion Number 28
2016-07-13 16:35:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT WED JUL 13 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 131435 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016 800 AM PDT WED JUL 13 2016 The cloud pattern is gradually deteriorating, and deep convection is confined to a small area near the center. Microwave and conventional infrared images continue to show that the low- and mid-level centers are not vertically aligned, which is another indication of weakening. In addition, subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, as well as objective numbers from CIMMS, argue for a reduction of the winds. Therefore, the initial intensity is set at 55 kt. Celia is already over cooler waters, and the wind shear is forecast to gradually increase. The presence of these conditions will result in weakening, and Celia is expected to degenerate into a tropical depression in a couple of days or sooner and into a remnant low thereafter. The NHC forecast follows the trend of the SHIPS guidance and the intensity model consensus. The cyclone appears to be moving toward the northwest or 305 degrees at 10 kt around the periphery of the subtropical ridge. Given that Celia is forecast to weaken and become a shallow system, the cyclone most likely will move toward the west in a couple of days steered by the prevailing low-level easterly flow. All track models are tightly clustered, and the NHC forecast, which is similar to the previous one, is in the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 19.1N 132.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 19.8N 134.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 20.8N 136.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 21.7N 138.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 22.0N 140.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 23.0N 145.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 17/1200Z 23.5N 150.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/1200Z 24.0N 154.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila
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