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Accountability Focus Group's Key Area of Discussion
2016-07-26 19:52:37| PortlandOnline
PDF Document, 1,800kbCategory: News
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Hurricane FRANK Forecast Discussion Number 20
2016-07-26 16:58:43| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 26 2016
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Tropical Storm GEORGETTE Forecast Discussion Number 20
2016-07-26 16:44:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 26 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 261444 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 26 2016 Georgette continues to quickly weaken, with the associated convection decreasing significantly in both coverage and intensity since the last advisory. The initial intensity is reduced to 60 kt based on a blend of Dvorak T- and Current Intensity-numbers from TAFB and SAB. However, the latest estimates from objective techniques at CIMSS suggest this could be generous. Georgette should continue to weaken in an environment of dry mid-level air and sea surface temperatures of 23C-25C, and the intensity forecast calls for the tropical cyclone to decay to a remnant low by 48 hours. The system is subsequently expected to dissipate by 96 hours. The motion remains slow at 305/3. Water vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level trough is moving westward to the north and northwest of Georgette. This feature has likely weakened the subtropical ridge and contributed to the current slow motion. The dynamical models forecast the ridge to build north of Georgette during the next 72 hours, which should steer the cyclone or its remnants northwestward and then westward during the next 72-96 hours. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track and lies just south of the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 18.4N 128.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 18.8N 129.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 19.8N 130.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 20.7N 131.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 21.5N 134.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/1200Z 22.0N 138.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm FRANK Forecast Discussion Number 19
2016-07-26 10:48:11| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 26 2016
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Hurricane GEORGETTE Forecast Discussion Number 19
2016-07-26 10:45:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 26 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 260845 TCDEP3 HURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 26 2016 Georgette continues to weaken at a fast pace this morning. Central deep convection has been diminishing in areal coverage and intensity, and using a blend of Dvorak T- and Current Intensity-numbers from TAFB and SAB, the current intensity is set at 70 kt. Georgette will be moving over sub-25 deg C waters and through an environment of dry mid-level air, so continued weakening is expected. The cyclone's intensity should drop to tropical storm status today, and below storm strength within 48 hours or sooner. The official intensity forecast is a little above the latest numerical model consensus, IVCN. The slow forward motion continues, and the initial motion estimate is northwestward or 315/4 kt. Georgette is located to the south of a weakness in the subtropical ridge and this has likely contributed to the slow northwestward motion. The ridge is predicted to build somewhat, and as the weakening tropical cyclone responds more to the lower-level flow, a gradual turn to the left with some increase in forward speed is expected during the forecast period. The official forecast is only slightly slower than the previous one albeit along about the same trajectory. This is close to the latest model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 18.5N 128.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 18.8N 128.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 19.5N 129.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 20.5N 130.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 21.5N 132.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/0600Z 22.0N 137.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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