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Tropical Storm FRANK Forecast Discussion Number 24

2016-07-27 16:39:21| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 800 AM PDT WED JUL 27 2016

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Tropical Storm GEORGETTE Forecast Discussion Number 23

2016-07-27 10:37:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT WED JUL 27 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 270837 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016 200 AM PDT WED JUL 27 2016 Georgette is on borrowed time. Enhanced IR imagery shows no deep convection associated with the system, and if this condition persists, the cyclone will be declared a remnant low later today. The official forecast delays this event slightly, to allow for the possibility that thunderstorms may redevelop in the circulation. A scatterometer overpass indicated that the maximum winds were 35 kt, and that these tropical-storm-force winds were confined to the northeastern quadrant of the system. A continued spin down of the circulation over cooler waters is forecast and the cyclone should dissipate in 2-3 days. The center is difficult to locate on night time images, but my best estimate of initial motion is 310/5 kt. Georgette, or its remnant low, should move on a west-northwestward to westward heading, within the low-level tradewinds, until dissipation. The official track forecast is a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF predictions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 19.1N 129.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 19.8N 130.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 20.6N 132.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 28/1800Z 21.2N 134.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/0600Z 21.2N 136.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Hurricane FRANK Forecast Discussion Number 23

2016-07-27 10:33:52| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 200 AM PDT WED JUL 27 2016

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Hurricane FRANK Forecast Discussion Number 22

2016-07-27 04:33:18| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 26 2016

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Tropical Storm GEORGETTE Forecast Discussion Number 22

2016-07-27 04:33:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 26 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 270233 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 26 2016 Convective cloud tops continue to warm near Georgette, and there are no longer any pixels -50C or colder in infrared satellite imagery. Subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates are now between 30 kt and 55 kt, so the initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt on this advisory. Georgette will be moving through a dry environment and over sea surface temperatures between 23-25C during the next couple of days, which should cause further weakening. If deep convection does not redevelop, then Georgette will likely become post-tropical in the next 12-24 hours. The global models then indicate that the remnant low will degenerate into a trough by day 3. Center fixes indicate that Georgette is moving again, and the initial motion estimate is north-northwestward, or 335/3 kt. A low- to mid-level trough extending north of Georgette toward the California coast appears to have been influencing the cyclone's recent motion. This feature is expected to run out ahead of Georgette during the next day or two, and a re-establishment of the subtropical ridge should cause the cyclone to turn west- northwestward and accelerate through 48 hours. The NHC forecast is essentially an update of the previous one and is close to the TVCE multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 18.8N 128.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 19.4N 129.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 20.4N 131.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 28/1200Z 21.1N 133.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/0000Z 21.6N 135.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

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