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Hurricane GEORGETTE Forecast Discussion Number 15

2016-07-25 10:34:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT MON JUL 25 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 250834 TCDEP3 HURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016 200 AM PDT MON JUL 25 2016 Georgette is maintaining its organization. The cyclone exhibits an annular appearance, with a nearly symmetric CDO and essentially no banding features. A 0245 UTC SSMI/S hints at a possible eyewall replacement, though it's not clear at what stage it has progressed. Dvorak satellite classifications are a unanimous T6.0 at 0600 UTC, and on this basis, the intensity estimate is kept at 115 kt. The initial motion estimate is 315/09. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north and east of Georgette would tend to steer it westward or west-northwestward during the next few days. However, an upper- low ahead of it should continue to impart a more northwesterly motion, though at a much reduced forward speed. After 72 hours, Georgette is forecast to become a much shallower cyclone, at which time the track should bend toward the west and accelerate in the low-level flow. The new track forecast is not much different than the previous one, except that it is slower beyond 72 hours and a little to the south, in agreement with the consensus track guidance. The intensity forecast seems straightforward. Georgette's movement over a colder sea surface and into increasingly drier and more stable air mass should soon result in weakening. The caveat is that Georgette's annular structure could allow it to maintain more strength than forecast in the very short term. By 48 hours, however, the thermodynamics in the storm's environment should become hostile, and a more rapid weakening is expected to commence. The new NHC intensity forecast is somewhat lower than the previous one and is close to the multi-model consensus, except prior to 48 hours when the storm's annular characteristics have been taken into account. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 16.9N 126.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 17.6N 127.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 18.2N 128.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 18.8N 128.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 19.6N 130.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 28/0600Z 21.4N 133.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 29/0600Z 22.3N 138.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/0600Z 22.4N 143.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kimberlain

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Tropical Storm FRANK Forecast Discussion Number 15

2016-07-25 10:32:36| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 300 AM MDT MON JUL 25 2016

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Hurricane GEORGETTE Forecast Discussion Number 14

2016-07-25 04:50:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN JUL 24 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 250249 TCDEP3 HURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016 800 PM PDT SUN JUL 24 2016 Georgette has been rapidly intensifying. The eye of the hurricane has become much more distinct in satellite images since the previous advisory, and the deep convection is fairly symmetric around the center. The latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin support raising the initial intensity to 115 kt, making Georgette a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. This is an impressive 50-kt intensity increase in the past 24 hours. Even though Georgette is a major hurricane, scatterometer data from a few hours ago indicated that its wind field is fairly compact. Georgette has been taking advantage of favorable environmental conditions of very low shear and sufficiently warm waters of about 27 deg C during its rapid intensification phase. Although the shear is expected to remain light during the next few days, Georgette is forecast to track over progressively cooler SSTs and it should cross the 26 deg C isotherm in about 12 hours. Therefore, some additional strengthening is possible overnight, but a steady weakening trend should commence on Monday. Georgette is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone in 3 to 4 days when it is expected to be embedded in a dry air mass and located over SSTs of 22-23 deg C. The hurricane is moving northwestward at about 10 kt toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge caused by an upper-level low. This general heading with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. After that time, a faster motion toward the west-northwest and then west is forecast when the weakening system becomes steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The NHC track forecast is not too different from the previous one, and lies close to the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 16.3N 126.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 17.1N 126.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 17.8N 127.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 18.5N 128.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 19.3N 129.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 21.3N 132.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 22.8N 137.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/0000Z 23.5N 143.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm FRANK Forecast Discussion Number 14

2016-07-25 04:49:04| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 900 PM MDT SUN JUL 24 2016

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Tropical Storm FRANK Forecast Discussion Number 13

2016-07-24 22:45:04| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 300 PM MDT SUN JUL 24 2016

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