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Hurricane GEORGETTE Forecast Discussion Number 13

2016-07-24 22:35:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN JUL 24 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 242034 TCDEP3 HURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016 200 PM PDT SUN JUL 24 2016 Georgette has continued to strengthen today, with a cloudy eye now seen in visible imagery surrounded by a CDO with cloud tops of around -70C. The initial intensity is set to 90 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimates of T5.0 from TAFB and SAB. Georgette still has a chance to intensity further in the next 12 hours before SSTs cool below 26C along the track. After that time, slow weakening should begin, followed by a faster rate of decay by 36 hours as SSTs cool below 25C and the shear increases a bit. Georgette is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone in 3-4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is above all of the guidance through 24 hours and near or a little below the LGEM. The initial motion estimate is 300/09. The mid-level anticyclone centered north of Georgette will gradually weaken during the next 72 hours, which will cause the tropical cyclone to turn northwestward and slow down. Late in the period, a shallow post-tropical Georgette should accelerate back toward the west in the low-level trade wind flow. The new NHC track is again adjusted a little to the right of the previous one and is not far from the new TVCN multi-model consensus. The wind radii have been adjusted based on a pair of ASCAT passes around 1800 UTC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 15.7N 125.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 16.4N 126.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 17.2N 127.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 17.9N 128.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 18.7N 128.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 20.8N 131.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 28/1800Z 22.5N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 29/1800Z 23.5N 141.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brennan

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Hurricane GEORGETTE Forecast Discussion Number 12

2016-07-24 16:33:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN JUL 24 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 241432 TCDEP3 HURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016 800 AM PDT SUN JUL 24 2016 The coverage of cold convective tops has increased over the past few hours and a 0921Z GPM pass and 0935Z AMSR pass showed that the center of Georgette was near the middle of the CDO feature. Based on the improved convective organization, the initial intensity has been set to 75 kt, which is close to the latest Dvorak estimates from SAB and UW-CIMSS. The hurricane has an opportunity to strengthen a bit more in the short term before SSTs cool below 26C by 24 hours. After that time, slow weakening should begin and continue through the rest of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast is close to SHIPS model at 12 h and near the LGEM thereafter. In about 4 days, Georgette should become a post- tropical cyclone over SSTs of 22-23C in a dry and stable environment. The initial motion estimate is 295/09 based on the latest geostationary and microwave fixes. A mid-level anticyclone centered north of Georgette will gradually weaken during the next 72 hours, which will cause the tropical cyclone to turn northwestward and slow down. By the end of the period, the shallow post-tropical Georgette should accelerate back toward the west-northwest in the low-level trade wind flow. The new NHC track is a little to the right of the previous one and is close to the latest TVCN consensus aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 15.1N 124.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 15.7N 125.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 16.6N 127.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 17.4N 127.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 18.1N 128.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 19.9N 130.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 28/1200Z 22.0N 133.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 29/1200Z 23.0N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brennan

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Hurricane GEORGETTE Forecast Discussion Number 11

2016-07-24 10:39:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN JUL 24 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 240839 TCDEP3 HURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016 200 AM PDT SUN JUL 24 2016 Deep convection has become more concentrated in a small, quasi-circular CDO feature, and overall the tropical cyclone has a fairly symmetrical presentation on satellite images. The initial intensity is increased to 70 kt based on a blend of subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates. Georgette is forecast to remain in an environment of vertical shear below 10 kt for the next 48 hours, but SSTs should cool to below 25 deg C over that time. Therefore, some additional intensification is forecast over the short term, but a slow weakening trend should be underway in 24 hours or so. The official intensity forecast is a little above the latest model consensus, IVCN, and near the high end of the guidance. Based on satellite center fixes, the initial motion estimate is about the same as in the previous advisory, or 290/9 kt. A mid-tropospheric anticyclone is currently centered to the north of the hurricane. This high is predicted to shift westward over the next few days, leading to a slight weakness in the subtropical ridge to the north of Georgette. As a result, the tropical cyclone should turn toward the northwest and decelerate. Near the end of the forecast period, Georgette will likely become a shallow cyclone and turn toward the left in the low-level flow. The official track forecast is close to the dynamical model consensus and leans toward the latest GFS solution. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 14.5N 123.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 15.2N 125.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 16.0N 126.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 16.9N 127.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 17.7N 128.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 18.9N 129.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 28/0600Z 20.8N 132.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 29/0600Z 22.5N 136.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm FRANK Forecast Discussion Number 11

2016-07-24 10:36:30| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 300 AM MDT SUN JUL 24 2016

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Hurricane GEORGETTE Forecast Discussion Number 10

2016-07-24 04:50:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT JUL 23 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 240249 TCDEP3 HURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016 800 PM PDT SAT JUL 23 2016 Georgette's convective structure improved this evening, as a band of showers and thunderstorms wrapped more than 360 degrees around the center. The intensity estimates spanned a wide range: 55 kt from SAB Dvorak, 58 kt from CIMSS AMSU, 65 kt from TAFB Dvorak, and 75 kt from CIMSS ADT. A blend of these gives 65 kt, making Georgette a hurricane. A 2227Z CIRA AMSU size analysis indicated that the tropical cyclone remained small with tropical-storm-force winds extending out only to 60 nm in the northern semicircle. Continued steady intensification is expected, but only for another day or so while Georgette traverses over warm SSTs, through moist unstable air, and experiences low tropospheric vertical shear. Starting on Monday, it is anticipated that the thermodynamics will no longer be conducive and gradual to steady weakening should occur. Around day four, the combination of cold SSTs and a dry stable atmosphere may lead to the system losing its deep convection and becoming a post-tropical cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast shows a slightly higher peak intensity in a day, then indicates a quicker demise. This forecast is based on a blend of the HWRF dynamical hurricane model and the LGEM statistical technique. Georgette is moving toward the west at about 8 kt, in the mid-level easterlies associated with the subtropical ridge to its north. An upper-level low swings around to the western periphery of Georgette and helps to induce a more northerly component of motion to the hurricane between 36 and 72 h. By day four, a decaying Georgette is steered back toward the west-northwest in the low-level trade winds. The NHC track forecast is nearly the same as that from the previous advisory and is based upon the TVCE multi-model consensus. Georgette is the fourth hurricane to form during the month of July in the eastern North Pacific basin. This ties a record for the month of July, last equaled back in 1992. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 14.2N 123.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 14.8N 124.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 15.8N 126.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 16.9N 127.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 17.7N 128.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 19.0N 129.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 20.5N 132.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 29/0000Z 21.5N 136.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Landsea

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