je.st
news
Tag: discussion
Tropical Storm ESTELLE Forecast Discussion Number 27
2016-07-22 04:52:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU JUL 21 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 220252 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 800 PM PDT THU JUL 21 2016 Convection associated with Estelle has decreased during the past several hours, and there is currently no organized convection present. The initial intensity is reduced to 40 kt based on the Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB combined with the subsequent decay of the convection. Cold water, a dry air mass, and increasing shear should cause continued weakening, with Estelle likely to decay to a remnant low sometime on Friday. The system is subsequently forecast to weaken to a trough after 72 hours. The initial motion remains 290/14 kt. Estelle is being steered by a mid-level ridge centered well to the east over the south-central United States, and it is heading for a break in the ridge caused by a large deep-layer low over the northeastern Pacific. This combination should produce a general west-northwestward to northwestward motion until the system dissipates. The new forecast track is basically an update of the previous track and lies near the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 21.0N 130.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 21.6N 133.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 22.8N 135.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 23/1200Z 24.1N 138.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/0000Z 25.4N 140.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/0000Z 28.0N 145.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm FRANK Forecast Discussion Number 2
2016-07-22 04:49:28| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 1000 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2016
Tags: number
discussion
frank
storm
Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2016-07-22 04:49:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU JUL 21 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 220249 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016 800 PM PDT THU JUL 21 2016 Visible satellite imagery and a 2309 UTC SSMIS microwave overpass showed that the depression's center of circulation was located near the northeastern edge of the cloud mass, indicative that some northeasterly shear is impinging on the cloud pattern. The Dvorak satellite intensity estimates have not changed during the past 6 hours, and the initial intensity remains at 30 kt. Light to moderate northeasterly shear is expected to continue for the next couple of days as the depression traverses warm water. Gradual strengthening seems reasonable and this forecast trend is supported by most of the statistical-dynamical guidance. Beyond day 3, however, the depression is expected to encounter decreasing SSTs of below 25C, and move into a more stable thermodynamic environment which should influence slow weakening through the remainder of the period. The latest NHC forecast is similar to the previous one, and is based primarily on the IVCN multi-model guidance. Conventional satellite position fixes and a couple of microwave overpasses yield an initial motion estimate of 295/11 kt, south of a strong subtropical ridge along 29N originating from Texas/northern Mexico. This ridge is expected to steer the cyclone generally west-northwestward through the 96 hour period. Afterward, the global and regional model guidance still shows increasing spread with time. The ECMWF is basically the outlier this evening, showing a much more north-northwestward turn into a break in the ridge created by a combination of a digging upper-level low, and Tropical Storm Frank to the northeast of the depression. All the other guidance agree more with a gradual turn toward the northwest through day 5. The official forecast splits these two solutions, but is hedged a bit toward the model cluster reflecting a less poleward turn. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 11.6N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 12.3N 116.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 13.1N 118.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 13.8N 120.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 14.4N 122.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 16.0N 125.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 26/0000Z 17.4N 127.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 27/0000Z 18.3N 129.1W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2016-07-21 22:37:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT THU JUL 21 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 212037 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016 300 PM MDT THU JUL 21 2016 An ASCAT-B pass at 1742Z showed that the area of low pressure located well southwest of Mexico now has a well-defined center, and the geostationary imagery shows a curved convective band wrapping nearly halfway around the system. Given this, the low is now classified as a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on the ASCAT data, which is also in agreement with the latest Dvorak estimate from SAB. The depression will be moving over SSTs of 28C or higher for the next couple of days, but will also be in a moderate easterly to northeasterly shear environment during that time. Given these conditions, gradual intensification is forecast in the short term. The cyclone is forecast to peak in about 72 hours before it moves over cooler waters and into a more stable environment, which should result in slow weakening. The NHC intensity prediction is close to the intensity consensus through the forecast period. The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 290/10 given the recent formation of the system. The dominant steering mechanism for the first 2-3 days of the forecast period will be a large subtropical ridge that will migrate westward from central North America over the eastern Pacific. This should keep the cyclone moving generally west-northwestward for the first 48 hours or so. After that time, there is an increase in the spread of the guidance. The ECMWF and HWRF show the cyclone turning more poleward into a weakness in the ridge caused by an upper-level low, with the ECMWF showing some northward motion possibly due to the influence of Tropical Storm Fred to the the northeast. The GFS, GEFS mean, and COAMPS-TC show a more westward track with the cyclone staying south of the ridge. For now the NHC track forecast is down the middle of the guidance envelope and is very close to the multi-model consensus. Given the large spread in the guidance, the track forecast uncertainty is higher than usual late in the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 10.8N 114.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 11.4N 115.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 12.3N 117.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 13.0N 119.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 13.6N 122.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 15.0N 125.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 17.0N 128.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 26/1800Z 18.0N 130.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Tropical Storm ESTELLE Forecast Discussion Number 26
2016-07-21 22:36:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU JUL 21 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 212036 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 200 PM PDT THU JUL 21 2016 Estelle is gradually weakening, with the convection warming west of the center during the past few hours. The initial intensity is set to 45 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Further weakening is expected as Estelle will be moving over SSTs of less than 23C with an increase in shear, which should result in Estelle losing organized deep convection and becoming post- tropical in about 24 hours, or even a little sooner. The remnant low of Estelle is expected to dissipate after 72 hours. The initial motion estimate is 290/14. Estelle is being steered by a mid-level ridge centered well to the east over the south-central United States. Estelle should continue moving around the periphery of the ridge and turn a bit more poleward by 36 hours, and this motion should continue through dissipation. The new NHC track forecast is again adjusted to the left of the previous one following the latest trend in the guidance. The official forecast is close to the latest ECMWF and lies a bit north of the new multi-model consensus aid TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 20.7N 129.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 21.4N 131.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 22.5N 134.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 23/0600Z 23.9N 136.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 23/1800Z 25.4N 139.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 24/1800Z 27.7N 143.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Sites : [877] [878] [879] [880] [881] [882] [883] [884] [885] [886] [887] [888] [889] [890] [891] [892] [893] [894] [895] [896] next »