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Tropical Depression NINE-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2016-07-31 18:23:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 930 AM PDT SUN JUL 31 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 311622 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092016 930 AM PDT SUN JUL 31 2016 The first visible satellite images this morning indicate that a well-defined center has formed in association with the area of low pressure located well southwest of Mexico. This, along with the increase in convective organization, supports classifying this system as a tropical cyclone. A 1401Z SSMIS overpass indicated that the low-level center was located beneath the convective canopy, and the initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. The cyclone is currently situated over waters of 27-28C and the shear is expected to remain relatively low, so gradual strengthening is forecast through the first 48 hours. Later in the period, the cyclone will move over cooler waters and into a drier and more stable thermodynamic environment, which should result in gradual weakening to remnant low status. The NHC intensity prediction is a little above the latest intensity consensus, but not as high as the HWRF and COAMPS-TC models. During the weakening phase, the NHC forecast is below the SHIPS model and the intensity consensus. The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 295/08. However, the track forecast reasoning appears relatively straightforward, as a mid-level ridge is expected to build westward to the north of the cyclone through the forecast period. This should result in a west-northwestward heading, with a bit of a westward bend in the track at days 4 and 5 as the shallow cyclone comes under the influence of the low-level trade winds. The NHC track forecast is close to the middle of the guidance envelope near the multi-model consensus. This marks the formation of the eighth tropical cyclone in the basin in July, tying the record set in July of 1985. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1630Z 14.2N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 14.9N 121.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 15.7N 123.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 16.6N 126.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 17.8N 128.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 20.3N 134.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 21.5N 139.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 05/1200Z 22.5N 144.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Depression FRANK Forecast Discussion Number 28
2016-07-28 16:40:27| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU JUL 28 2016
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Tropical Storm FRANK Forecast Discussion Number 27
2016-07-28 10:33:53| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 200 AM PDT THU JUL 28 2016
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Tropical Storm FRANK Forecast Discussion Number 25
2016-07-27 22:32:26| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 200 PM PDT WED JUL 27 2016
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Post-Tropical Cyclone GEORGETTE Forecast Discussion Number 24
2016-07-27 16:44:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT WED JUL 27 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 271444 TCDEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016 800 AM PDT WED JUL 27 2016 Georgette has been devoid of organized deep convection since about 0100 UTC. The cyclone is currently located over 24.5 deg C SSTs and moving toward colder water. In addition, Georgette has entrained a large field of stable stratocumulus clouds, which now completely encircle the system. Therefore, Georgette is now declared a remnant low, and this is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on a 0534Z ASCAT-A scatterometer pass that contained one 34-kt wind vector, and an assumed gradual spin-down of the circulation since then. The initial motion estimate is 300/08 kt. A west-northwestward to westward motion at about the same forward speed is expected during the next couple of days while the low continues to weaken. Dissipation is forecast to occur by 72 hours. Even though Georgette is no longer a tropical cyclone, recent altimeter data indicated that an area of seas higher than 12 ft still existed near the system. For additional information, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN02 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 19.5N 129.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 28/0000Z 20.1N 130.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 28/1200Z 20.8N 132.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 29/0000Z 21.1N 134.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/1200Z 21.0N 137.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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