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Hurricane GEORGETTE Forecast Discussion Number 18
2016-07-26 04:32:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT MON JUL 25 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 260232 TCDEP3 HURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016 800 PM PDT MON JUL 25 2016 Georgette has been on a steady weakening trend today. Although the eye of the hurricane is still apparent in visible images, it is much less distinct than it was earlier today. In addition, the convective pattern has become more ragged in appearance and is stretched from north to south. The initial wind speed is lowered to 85 kt, in agreement with a blend of the Final T- and CI-numbers from TAFB, SAB, and automated values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. Georgette is a small cyclone, and based on earlier scatterometer data, the tropical-storm-force winds extend only 40 n mi from the center. The hurricane is over SSTs of about 25 deg C, and it is headed for even cooler waters during the next few days. These unfavorable oceanic conditions combined with a drier air mass and an increase in southeasterly shear should cause additional steady or even rapid weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is in best agreement with the SHIPS guidance and now calls for Georgette to become a remnant low in 48 hours and dissipate by day 4. Satellite fixes indicate that Georgette has slowed down, as predicted, and the latest initial motion estimate is 310/6 kt. A continued slow northwestward motion is expected during the next day or so while the system moves toward an upper-level low to its northwest. After that time, the shallow cyclone is expected to turn toward the west-northwest and accelerate in the low-level trade wind flow. The NHC track forecast is a little slower than the previous one to come in better agreement with the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 18.2N 128.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 18.6N 128.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 19.3N 129.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 20.3N 130.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 21.1N 132.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/0000Z 22.4N 136.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm FRANK Forecast Discussion Number 17
2016-07-25 22:37:53| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 300 PM MDT MON JUL 25 2016
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Hurricane GEORGETTE Forecast Discussion Number 17
2016-07-25 22:32:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT MON JUL 25 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 252032 TCDEP3 HURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016 200 PM PDT MON JUL 25 2016 The eye is no longer seen in infrared imagery, but Georgette still has a small CDO with tops colder than -70C. The initial intensity is set to 95 kt based on a blend of the decreasing Dvorak Final-T and CI numbers from both TAFB and SAB. Rapid weakening is expected, with Georgette now moving over SSTs of around 25C and heading for even cooler waters. The NHC forecast follows the downward trend in the guidance this cycle and is close to the LGEM. Georgette should become post-tropical by 3 days and dissipate by day 4, although I wouldn't be surprised if both of these occurred sooner. The initial motion estimate remains 315/08, as Georgette continues to be steered northwestward by an upper-level low sliding by to the north. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as Georgette should continue northwestward until about 36 hours and then gradually accelerate westward in the low-level flow as a shallow system. The new NHC track forecast is a little faster than the previous one and is close to the latest multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 18.0N 127.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 18.4N 128.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 19.2N 129.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 20.0N 129.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 20.9N 131.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 22.5N 136.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/1800Z 22.5N 141.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm FRANK Forecast Discussion Number 16
2016-07-25 16:37:09| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 900 AM MDT MON JUL 25 2016
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Hurricane GEORGETTE Forecast Discussion Number 16
2016-07-25 16:36:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT MON JUL 25 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 251436 TCDEP3 HURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016 800 AM PDT MON JUL 25 2016 Georgette's satellite presentation has begun to degrade. The small eye has become filled in infrared imagery and the coverage and symmetry of cold tops in the CDO have decreased. The initial intensity of 105 kt is based on a blend of the latest Dvorak Final-T and CI numbers from TAFB and SAB. Quick weakening is expected as the cyclone will be moving over progressively cooler SSTs and into a drier and more stable airmass during the forecast period. Georgette should become a remnant low in about 3 days over SSTs of less than 23C and the remnant low is expected to dissipate in 4 to 5 days. The new NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous one but is still a bit above the latest IVCN consensus aid. The initial motion estimate is 315/08. Georgette is being pulled northwestward by an upper-level low centered to its northwest, and this motion should continue for the next 48 hours or so. After that time, a shallow Georgette should accelerate westward in the low- level trade wind flow. The new NHC track forecast is shifted a bit to the right of the previous one and is close to the latest TVCN consensus aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 17.5N 127.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 18.0N 127.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 18.7N 128.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 19.4N 129.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 20.3N 130.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 21.9N 134.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/1200Z 22.5N 139.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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