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Tropical Depression BLAS Wind Speed Probabilities Number 30

2016-07-10 10:33:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUL 10 2016 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 100833 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 0900 UTC SUN JUL 10 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Summary for Tropical Depression BLAS (EP3/EP032016)

2016-07-10 10:32:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...BLAS WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sun Jul 10 the center of BLAS was located near 21.2, -135.2 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Tropical Depression BLAS Forecast Advisory Number 30

2016-07-10 10:32:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUL 10 2016 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 100832 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 0900 UTC SUN JUL 10 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 135.2W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 135.2W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 134.7W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 21.3N 136.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 21.0N 138.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 20.5N 141.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 20.0N 143.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 135.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Tropical Storm BLAS Graphics

2016-07-10 05:08:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 10 Jul 2016 02:34:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 10 Jul 2016 03:04:38 GMT

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Tropical Storm BLAS Forecast Discussion Number 29

2016-07-10 04:33:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT JUL 09 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 100233 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 800 PM PDT SAT JUL 09 2016 The cloud pattern has degraded significantly tonight, and the deep convection has practically vanished. However, given the vigorous circulation still associated with Blas, it is estimated that the winds are 35 kt. Due to cold waters and high shear, global models and the intensity guidance weaken the cyclone fast. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for Blas to degenerate into a remnant low in 24 hours or less. Blas' circulation is moving toward the west or 280 degrees at 10 kt. Now that the cyclone is quickly becoming a shallow system, it is forecast to be steered westward or west-southwestward by the low-level flow until dissipation in a couple of days. Blas could still produce sporadic bursts of convection in the next day or two. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 21.2N 134.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 21.5N 136.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 21.5N 138.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 11/1200Z 21.0N 140.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/0000Z 20.5N 142.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila

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