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Tropical Storm BLAS Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28
2016-07-09 22:39:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 09 2016 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 092039 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM BLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 2100 UTC SAT JUL 09 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 133.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm BLAS Forecast Advisory Number 28
2016-07-09 22:38:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 09 2016 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 092038 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 2100 UTC SAT JUL 09 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 133.5W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 150SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 133.5W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 133.1W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 21.1N 135.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 21.2N 136.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 21.0N 139.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 20.6N 141.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 19.5N 145.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 133.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm BLAS Graphics
2016-07-09 16:50:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 09 Jul 2016 14:50:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 09 Jul 2016 14:48:35 GMT
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Tropical Storm BLAS Forecast Discussion Number 27
2016-07-09 16:49:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 09 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 091449 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 09 2016 Satellite images indicate that Blas continues to weaken. The associated deep convection has been shrinking in coverage and gradually losing organization during the last several hours. Accordingly, the Dvorak T-numbers are falling and a blend of the latest estimates from TAFB, SAB, and automated values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin suggest that the initial intensity has decreased to near 50 kt. Blas is currently over cool 24 C waters and embedded in a fairly stable air mass. These unfavorable conditions combined with a notable increase in southwesterly wind shear during the next couple of days should allow the weakening trend to continue. Blas is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low in 24 to 36 hours and dissipate in 4 to 5 days. The tropical storm is moving northwestward at about 9 kt located on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over northwestern Mexico. A gradual turn to the west is expected over the next day or two while the cyclone becomes shallower and is steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies closest to the consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 20.1N 132.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 20.8N 133.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 21.3N 135.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 21.5N 137.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/1200Z 21.2N 139.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1200Z 20.5N 144.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/1200Z 19.8N 148.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm BLAS Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27
2016-07-09 16:48:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 09 2016 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 091448 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM BLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 1500 UTC SAT JUL 09 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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