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Summary for Hurricane BLAS (EP3/EP032016)
2016-07-09 04:32:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...BLAS DECAYING OVER COOL WATERS... As of 8:00 PM PDT Fri Jul 8 the center of BLAS was located near 19.2, -131.0 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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Hurricane BLAS Public Advisory Number 25
2016-07-09 04:32:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI JUL 08 2016 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 090232 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE BLAS ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 800 PM PDT FRI JUL 08 2016 ...BLAS DECAYING OVER COOL WATERS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 131.0W ABOUT 1380 MI...2225 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Blas was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 131.0 West. Blas is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. A gradual turn to the west is anticipated thereafter. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Blas is expected to degenerate into a remnant low on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Hurricane BLAS Forecast Advisory Number 25
2016-07-09 04:32:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 09 2016 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 090232 TCMEP3 HURRICANE BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 0300 UTC SAT JUL 09 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 131.0W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 180SE 210SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 131.0W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 130.7W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 20.2N 132.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 21.3N 133.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 21.8N 135.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 21.7N 137.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.0N 141.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 20.0N 145.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 131.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Hurricane BLAS Graphics
2016-07-08 22:35:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 08 Jul 2016 20:35:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 08 Jul 2016 20:34:36 GMT
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Hurricane BLAS Forecast Discussion Number 24
2016-07-08 22:34:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 08 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 082034 TCDEP3 HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 08 2016 Cool waters are taking a toll on Blas. The satellite presentation of the hurricane has degraded since this morning as the convective cloud tops have warmed and steadily decreased in coverage. Dvorak intensity estimates continue to decrease and the initial wind speed has been reduced to 75 kt, which is blend of the latest subjective T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. The hurricane should continue to quickly weaken while it moves over water below 24C and into a more stable environment during the next several days. The latest intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS/LGEM guidance, and calls for Blas to weaken to a tropical storm tonight, and become a post-tropical cyclone in about 36 hours. Recent center fixes show that Blas has turned northwestward. The cyclone should continue moving northwestward during the next day or so into a weakness in the subtropical ridge caused by a large mid- to upper-level low to the northeast of Hawaii. By Sunday, the post-tropical cyclone is forecast to turn back westward in the low-level easterly flow. The guidance is in good agreement on this scenario and the updated track forecast is essentially an update of the previous NHC advisory. The initial wind radii have been adjusted based on a recent ASCAT pass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 18.5N 130.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 19.7N 131.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 21.0N 132.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 21.8N 134.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 10/1800Z 22.0N 136.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 11/1800Z 21.5N 140.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/1800Z 20.5N 144.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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