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Hurricane BLAS Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24

2016-07-08 22:34:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 08 2016 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 082034 PWSEP3 HURRICANE BLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 2100 UTC FRI JUL 08 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Summary for Hurricane BLAS (EP3/EP032016)

2016-07-08 22:33:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...BLAS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... As of 2:00 PM PDT Fri Jul 8 the center of BLAS was located near 18.5, -130.5 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

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Hurricane BLAS Public Advisory Number 24

2016-07-08 22:33:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 08 2016 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 082033 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE BLAS ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 08 2016 ...BLAS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 130.5W ABOUT 1365 MI...2195 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Blas was located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 130.5 West. Blas is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Saturday. A turn back toward the west-northwest is forecast Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Blas is expected to weaken to a tropical storm by tonight and become a post-tropical cyclone Saturday night or early Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Hurricane BLAS Forecast Advisory Number 24

2016-07-08 22:33:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 08 2016 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 082033 TCMEP3 HURRICANE BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 2100 UTC FRI JUL 08 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 130.5W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 210SE 240SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 130.5W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 130.2W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 19.7N 131.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 21.0N 132.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 21.8N 134.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 22.0N 136.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 21.5N 140.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 20.5N 144.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 130.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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