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Hurricane BLAS Graphics
2016-07-08 11:09:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 08 Jul 2016 08:42:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 08 Jul 2016 09:05:39 GMT
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Hurricane BLAS Forecast Discussion Number 22
2016-07-08 10:46:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI JUL 08 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 080846 TCDEP3 HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 200 AM PDT FRI JUL 08 2016 The eye of Blas is no longer apparent in infrared imagery, but cold cloud tops persist in a CDO over the center. The initial intensity is lowered to 90 kt based on a blend of the latest subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. Rapid weakening is expected during the next 48 hours as Blas moves over much cooler waters and into a drier and more stable airmass, and the NHC forecast during this time is close to the latest LGEM guidance. Blas is expected to become post-tropical by 48 hours and then continue a slow spin down through the remainder of the forecast period. The initial motion estimate is 300/09, as Blas is beginning to gain some latitude as it moves around the southwestern edge of a subtropical ridge centered well to the east over Mexico. The track model guidance shows Blas turning northwestward between 12 to 36 h as it moves into a weakness ahead of a large upper-level low northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. After that time a weakening Blas should turn westward and then west-southwestward under the influence of the low-level trade wind flow. The new NHC forecast is a bit north of the previous one through 48 hours following the latest guidance trend. Late in the period the guidance has shifted southward, and the new NHC track is south of the previous one. This forecast is little south of the latest GFS track and ends up a bit north of the multi-model consensus by day 5. The initial and forecast wind radii were adjusted based on a pair of timely ASCAT-A and ASCAT-B passes over Blas between 0530 and 0630 UTC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 17.4N 129.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 18.3N 130.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 19.7N 131.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 21.0N 132.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 21.8N 134.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 11/0600Z 22.0N 138.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/0600Z 21.0N 143.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/0600Z 20.0N 147.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Summary for Hurricane BLAS (EP3/EP032016)
2016-07-08 10:43:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...BLAS FORECAST TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Fri Jul 8 the center of BLAS was located near 17.4, -129.4 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 972 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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Hurricane BLAS Public Advisory Number 22
2016-07-08 10:43:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI JUL 08 2016 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 080843 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE BLAS ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 200 AM PDT FRI JUL 08 2016 ...BLAS FORECAST TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 129.4W ABOUT 1320 MI...2120 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Blas was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 129.4 West. Blas is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected today, and this motion is expected to continue through Saturday. A turn back toward the west-northwest is forecast Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Blas is expected to weaken to a tropical storm tonight and become a post-tropical cyclone Sunday night or Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Hurricane BLAS Forecast Advisory Number 22
2016-07-08 10:42:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 08 2016 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 080842 TCMEP3 HURRICANE BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 0900 UTC FRI JUL 08 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 129.4W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......110NE 90SE 80SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 270SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 129.4W AT 08/0900Z AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 128.9W FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 18.3N 130.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 19.7N 131.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 21.0N 132.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 21.8N 134.4W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 22.0N 138.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 21.0N 143.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 20.0N 147.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 129.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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