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Summary for Hurricane BLAS (EP3/EP032016)
2016-07-08 16:53:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...BLAS HEADING TOWARD COOLER WATERS... ...EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Jul 8 the center of BLAS was located near 17.8, -130.0 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 974 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
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Hurricane BLAS Public Advisory Number 23
2016-07-08 16:53:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 08 2016 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 081453 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE BLAS ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 08 2016 ...BLAS HEADING TOWARD COOLER WATERS... ...EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 130.0W ABOUT 1345 MI...2165 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Blas was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 130.0 West. Blas is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected today, and this motion is expected to continue through Saturday. A turn back toward the west-northwest is forecast Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Blas is expected to weaken to a tropical storm by early Saturday and become a post-tropical cyclone on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane BLAS Forecast Discussion Number 23
2016-07-08 16:50:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 08 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 081450 TCDEP3 HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 08 2016 Despite being over cool water, the convection associated with Blas remains deep with cloud tops below -70C. Recent microwave data show that the eye of Blas is still intact and it has occasionally been evident in infrared satellite imagery this morning. Subjective and objective Dvorak T-numbers are gradually decreasing and a blend of the latest estimates yields an initial wind speed of 85 kt. The hurricane will be moving over waters below 24C and into a more stable atmospheric environment during the next 12 to 24 hours. This is expected to cause rapid weakening and Blas is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm by early Saturday, and become post-tropical in about 48 hours. Blas is still moving west-northwestward or 300/9 kt. The cyclone is expected to turn northwestward very soon between a mid-level ridge extending westward off the coast of Mexico and a mid- to upper-level low northeast of Hawaii. As Blas weakens and becomes a more vertically shallow system, it should turn back westward, then west-southwestward in the low level trade wind flow in 48 to 72 hours. The bulk of the track guidance has shifted a bit southward at 48 hours and beyond, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted in that direction. The updated track is near the center of the model envelope through 72 hours, but is north of the multi-model consensus after that time out of respect for the GFS, GFS ensemble mean, and continuity with the previous NHC track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 17.8N 130.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 19.0N 130.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 20.3N 132.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 21.3N 133.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 21.7N 135.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 11/1200Z 21.5N 139.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/1200Z 20.3N 144.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1200Z 19.5N 147.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane BLAS Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2016-07-08 16:49:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 08 2016 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 081449 PWSEP3 HURRICANE BLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 1500 UTC FRI JUL 08 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane BLAS Forecast Advisory Number 23
2016-07-08 16:48:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 08 2016 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 081448 TCMEP3 HURRICANE BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 1500 UTC FRI JUL 08 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 130.0W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......110NE 90SE 80SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 210SE 240SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 130.0W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 129.7W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 19.0N 130.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 20.3N 132.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 21.3N 133.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 21.7N 135.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.5N 139.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 20.3N 144.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 19.5N 147.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 130.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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