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Hurricane BLAS Graphics

2016-07-08 05:09:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 08 Jul 2016 02:34:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 08 Jul 2016 03:05:38 GMT

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Hurricane BLAS Forecast Discussion Number 21

2016-07-08 04:33:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT THU JUL 07 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 080233 TCDEP3 HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 800 PM PDT THU JUL 07 2016 The eye feature has become less discernible in enhanced infrared imagery this evening, and the inner core cloud top temperatures have warmed considerably. A compromise of all available subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates yields an initial intensity of 95 kt. Blas is expected to accelerate its spin down as the cyclone continues to traverse a rather sharp sea surface temperature gradient and reaches sub-24C waters by the 36 hour period. Blas is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm by that time, and ultimately become a remnant low in 3 days, or earlier. The official forecast intensity is basically an update of the previous advisory and is close to the Florida State Superensemble. The initial motion is west-northwestward or 295/8, within the southwestern peripheral steering flow of a mid-level ridge originating over eastern Mexico. Large-scale models all show the cyclone gradually turning northwestward in 12 hours as Blas enters a growing weakness produced by a large cut-off low northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. As the weakening trend accelerates and Blas becomes a vertically shallower system, the post-tropical remnant low is expected to turn westward in the easterly flow of the trades. The NHC forecast is based on a blend of the previous forecast and a consensus of the ECMWF and GFS (GFEX). FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 16.9N 128.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 17.6N 129.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 18.8N 131.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 20.2N 132.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 21.5N 133.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 22.5N 137.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/0000Z 22.3N 142.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/0000Z 21.7N 146.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts

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Hurricane BLAS Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21

2016-07-08 04:33:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 08 2016 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 080233 PWSEP3 HURRICANE BLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 0300 UTC FRI JUL 08 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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Summary for Hurricane BLAS (EP3/EP032016)

2016-07-08 04:32:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...BLAS WEAKENS TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE... As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu Jul 7 the center of BLAS was located near 16.9, -128.6 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 968 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.

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