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Hurricane OLAF Graphics
2015-10-19 05:05:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 19 Oct 2015 02:43:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 19 Oct 2015 03:05:47 GMT
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Hurricane OLAF Forecast Discussion Number 17
2015-10-19 04:42:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN OCT 18 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 190242 TCDEP4 HURRICANE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 800 PM PDT SUN OCT 18 2015 Olaf's inner-core convective pattern has improved significantly since the previous advisory. A cloud-filled eye about 15 n mi in diameter has become apparent in visible, infrared, and passive microwave satellite data since around 18/2300Z, and cloud tops have cooled to below -80C almost encircling the eye during the past hour. The initial intensity has been increased to 85 kt based on a blend of Dvorak satellite intensity estimates of T5.0/90 kt from TAFB and T4.5/77 kt from SAB. This intensity is supported by NHC AODT satellite intensity estimates of T4.8/85 kt and T5.2/95 kt using embedded-center and obscured-eye patterns, respectively. The initial motion estimate is 275/10 kt based on microwave and visible eye fixes. Other than a slight southward adjustment due to the recent eye positions, the previous forecast track and reasoning essentially remain unchanged. Olaf is expected to gradually round the southwestern and western portion of a deep-layer subtropical ridge, turning northward and slowing down considerably on days 4 and 5 as the hurricane moves into a weakness in the ridge. The westward shift in the guidance as mentioned in the previous discussion appears to have settled down on this latest cycle with the UKMET and the other models now having moved closer together. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly to the left of the previous advisory track due to the more southward initial position, and lies between the consensus models and the more westward UKMET solution. Although Olaf has made a sharp intensity comeback, the proximity of a pronounced dry slot that has worked its way completely around the small inner-core convective region of the hurricane precludes forecasting rapid intensification at this time. However, with the vertical shear expected to be near or below 5 kt for the next 72 hours while Olaf remains over 29C or greater SSTs, at least steady strengthening appears to be in order for the next 36 hours or so. Although the LGEM intensity guidance brings Olaf to category 4 strength (115-120 kt) in the 36-72 h period, the official forecast levels off the intensity at 110 kt due to the likelihood of one or more eyewall replacement cycles occurring during that time. By days 4 and 5, a gradual weakening trend is forecast to occur as Olaf moves into a region of much drier mid-level air with humidity values less than 50 percent, along with cold upwelling occurring beneath the cyclone due to the hurricane's expected slower forward speed of around 5 kt. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 9.7N 135.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 9.9N 136.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 10.3N 138.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 11.0N 140.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 11.9N 141.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 13.7N 144.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 16.1N 145.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 24/0000Z 18.2N 145.4W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane OLAF Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2015-10-19 04:41:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 19 2015 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 190241 PWSEP4 HURRICANE OLAF WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 0300 UTC MON OCT 19 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OLAF WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 145W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 11(18) 5(23) 1(24) 10N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 10N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 36(40) 19(59) 3(62) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 13(28) 2(30) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) 1(15) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 9(22) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 5(15) 15N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 15N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Hurricane OLAF (EP4/EP192015)
2015-10-19 04:40:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...OLAF STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sun Oct 18 the center of OLAF was located near 9.7, -135.4 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 978 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
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Hurricane OLAF Public Advisory Number 17
2015-10-19 04:40:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN OCT 18 2015 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 190240 TCPEP4 BULLETIN HURRICANE OLAF ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 800 PM PDT SUN OCT 18 2015 ...OLAF STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.7N 135.4W ABOUT 1485 MI...2390 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 1915 MI...3080 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Olaf was located near latitude 9.7 North, longitude 135.4 West. Olaf is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). This westward motion is expected to continue through Monday, followed by a turn toward the west- northwest Monday night and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Olaf is forecast to become a major hurricane by Monday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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