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Tropical Storm OLAF Graphics

2015-10-17 23:09:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 17 Oct 2015 20:35:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 17 Oct 2015 21:05:47 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm OLAF (EP4/EP192015)

2015-10-17 22:39:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...OLAF MOVING WESTWARD AT LOW LATITUDE... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sat Oct 17 the center of OLAF was located near 9.2, -130.5 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Tropical Storm OLAF Public Advisory Number 12

2015-10-17 22:39:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT OCT 17 2015 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 172039 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OLAF ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 200 PM PDT SAT OCT 17 2015 ...OLAF MOVING WESTWARD AT LOW LATITUDE... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.2N 130.5W ABOUT 1660 MI...2670 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Olaf was located near latitude 9.2 North, longitude 130.5 West. Olaf is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A decrease in forward speed is expected by tonight, with a turn toward the west-northwest forecast on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Olaf is expected to become a hurricane by Sunday, and be near major hurricane strength on Monday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain

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Tropical Storm OLAF Forecast Discussion Number 12

2015-10-17 22:33:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT OCT 17 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 172033 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 200 PM PDT SAT OCT 17 2015 There appears to have been a temporary interruption to Olaf's intensification this morning, which could be related to a couple of different factors. Microwave imagery from earlier suggested that the cyclone ingested a tongue of relatively drier air. There is also moderate northwesterly shear still affecting the system. Nevertheless, there are some signs that Olaf could be about to resume an intensification. The cyclone has maintained a small CDO, but there is now greater definition to inner-core features than 12 to 24 hours ago, and the convective bands have lengthened and gained greater curvature. While satellite classifications remain a consensus T3.0/45 kt at 1800 UTC, the initial intensity estimate of 50 kt from the previous advisory is maintained. The initial motion estimate is 265/11. The mid-level subtropical ridge steering Olaf westward should weaken soon in response to the long tail of a mid- to upper-level trough near the U.S. west coast settling southward to the north of the cyclone. The weaker ridge should induce a west-northwestward course at a reduced forward speed during the 2 to 3 days. After about 72 hours, a large anticyclone forming in the east-central subtropical Pacific near 140W is forecast to shift eastward while a weakness develops along farther west. Global models show Olaf moving in the flow between these two synoptic features, resulting in a northwestward and then north- northwestward turn after 96 hours. The guidance has shifted toward the left again this cycle, especially later in the forecast period, and the official track forecast is moved in that direction. Since most of the global models depicted Olaf farther north than where it currently is, it would not be surprising if further leftward adjustments are necessary. Other than some northwesterly shear over Olaf during the next day or so, the large-scale environment is conducive for Olaf to intensify. The shear could slow the rate of intensification, but it would not appear strong enough not to allow Olaf to strengthen at least at the climatological rate of development of one Dvorak T-number per day. A diminution of the shear by 36 hours, in combination with other very conducive environmental factors, should allow Olaf to strengthen to near major hurricane strength in 2 to 3 days. Olaf is also expected to become a much larger cyclone during the next several days, with an impressive expansion of the wind field depicted in global models. Late in the forecast period, once Olaf gains enough latitude, a drier environment with an increase in southerly or south-southwesterly shear should result in weakening. The new intensity forecast is identical to the previous one and is closest to the FSU Superensemble output and near the upper edge of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 9.2N 130.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 9.3N 131.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 9.8N 133.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 10.3N 135.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 11.0N 136.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 12.9N 139.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 21/1800Z 15.2N 142.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 22/1800Z 17.3N 142.8W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain

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Tropical Storm OLAF Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12

2015-10-17 22:32:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 17 2015 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 172032 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM OLAF WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 2100 UTC SAT OCT 17 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OLAF WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 7(25) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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