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Hurricane Helene Public Advisory Number 13

2018-09-10 16:35:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018 310 WTNT33 KNHC 101435 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Helene Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018 ...HELENE STRENGTHENING QUICKLY OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 30.0W ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Helene was located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 30.0 West. Helene is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west- northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through late Tuesday, followed by a turn toward the northwest and then toward the north-northwest on Wednesday and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected today, and Helene is forecast to become a major hurricane by tonight. Steady weakening is forecast to begin by late Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brennan

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Hurricane Helene Forecast Advisory Number 13

2018-09-10 16:35:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 10 2018 309 WTNT23 KNHC 101435 TCMAT3 HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018 1500 UTC MON SEP 10 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 30.0W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 40SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 30.0W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 29.4W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 15.2N 32.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 15.9N 34.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 16.8N 36.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 18.0N 37.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 21.5N 39.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 27.0N 40.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 32.5N 40.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 30.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Summary for Hurricane Helene (AT3/AL082018)

2018-09-10 15:33:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...HELENE STRENGTHENING QUICKLY OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 10 the center of Helene was located near 14.6, -30.0 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 974 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

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Hurricane Helene Forecast Discussion Number 12

2018-09-10 13:33:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018 768 WTNT43 KNHC 101133 CCA TCDAT3 Hurricane Helene Discussion Number 12...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 500 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018 Corrected to change Paul to Isaac in third paragraph Little change in the Helene's cloud pattern has been observed during the past 6 hours. The earlier mentioned ragged banding-type eye feature is still apparent in the enhanced infrared BD-curve imagery and a recent SSMI/S microwave overpass. The initial intensity is held at 75 kt, and is based on the subjective Dvorak intensity estimates. Helene is moving within a fairly ripe environment and over warm oceanic sea surface temperatures. These conducive conditions should promote additional strengthening over the next 36 hours. Afterward, increasing south-southwesterly shear, lower mid-tropospheric moisture, and cooler water are expected to induce weakening, however gradually, through day 5. The official forecast follows suit and is similar to the better performing IVCN intensity consensus model. Helene's initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 285/15 kt, and this general motion is forecast during the next 48 hours. Beyond that period, a break in the subtropical ridge to the northwest of Isaac, created by a mid- to upper-level cut-off low digging southward, should induce a northward turn with a gradual increase in forward motion. The large-scale models all indicate this change in the synoptic steering pattern, although there is some disparity on how soon Helene will turn toward the north. The NHC track is quite close to the previous forecast and lies between the consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 14.3N 28.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 14.8N 30.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 15.5N 33.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 16.3N 35.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 17.2N 37.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 20.3N 39.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 14/0600Z 25.3N 40.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 15/0600Z 31.2N 41.1W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts

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