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Hurricane Helene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2018-09-10 10:52:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 10 2018 808 FONT13 KNHC 100852 PWSAT3 HURRICANE HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018 0900 UTC MON SEP 10 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Hurricane Helene Forecast Discussion Number 12
2018-09-10 10:52:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018 739 WTNT43 KNHC 100852 TCDAT3 Hurricane Helene Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 500 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018 Little change in the Helene's cloud pattern has been observed during the past 6 hours. The earlier mentioned ragged banding-type eye feature is still apparent in the enhanced infrared BD-curve imagery and a recent SSMI/S microwave overpass. The initial intensity is held at 75 kt, and is based on the subjective Dvorak intensity estimates. Helene is moving within a fairly ripe environment and over warm oceanic sea surface temperatures. These conducive conditions should promote additional strengthening over the next 36 hours. Afterward, increasing south-southwesterly shear, lower mid-tropospheric moisture, and cooler water are expected to induce weakening, however gradually, through day 5. The official forecast follows suit and is similar to the better performing IVCN intensity consensus model. Helene's initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 285/15 kt, and this general motion is forecast during the next 48 hours. Beyond that period, a break in the subtropical ridge to the northwest of Paul, created by a mid- to upper-level cut-off low digging southward, should induce a northward turn with a gradual increase in forward motion. The large-scale models all indicate this change in the synoptic steering pattern, although there is some disparity on how soon Helene will turn toward the north. The NHC track is quite close to the previous forecast and lies between the consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 14.3N 28.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 14.8N 30.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 15.5N 33.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 16.3N 35.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 17.2N 37.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 20.3N 39.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 14/0600Z 25.3N 40.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 15/0600Z 31.2N 41.1W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Hurricane Helene (AT3/AL082018)
2018-09-10 10:52:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HELENE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO RESUME STRENGTHENING TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Sep 10 the center of Helene was located near 14.3, -28.9 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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Hurricane Helene Public Advisory Number 12
2018-09-10 10:52:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018 256 WTNT33 KNHC 100852 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Helene Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 500 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018 ...HELENE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO RESUME STRENGTHENING TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.3N 28.9W ABOUT 305 MI...485 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Helene was located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 28.9 West. Helene is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for another couple of days. A turn to the northwest is forecast to occur on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Helene's expected to resume strengthening today. Afterward, weakening is forecast to commence Wednesday morning. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Hurricane Helene Forecast Advisory Number 12
2018-09-10 10:52:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 10 2018 257 WTNT23 KNHC 100852 TCMAT3 HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018 0900 UTC MON SEP 10 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 28.9W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 28.9W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 28.2W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 14.8N 30.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 15.5N 33.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 16.3N 35.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 17.2N 37.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 20.3N 39.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 70SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 25.3N 40.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 31.2N 41.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 28.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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