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Hurricane Dorian Forecast Discussion Number 30
2019-08-31 22:52:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 312052 TCDAT5 Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019 Dorian's satellite presentation continues to be outstanding. The eye has remained very distinct and is surrounded by a ring of very deep convection. The latest information from the Air Force plane before it departed Dorian supports keeping an initial intensity of 130 kt. Dorian is forecast to move over a deep layer of very warm waters, and with the prevailing low shear along the hurricane's path, some additional strengthening is possible during the next day or so. Most likely, however, the hurricane will experience some fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacement cycles that are difficult to predict. Beyond 3 days, as the hurricane begins to gain latitude and encounters increasing shear, gradual weakening is anticipated, but Dorian will remain a dangerous hurricane through 5 days. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west or 280 degrees at 8 kt. The hurricane is being steered by the weak flow to the south of the ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic. In about a day or two, most of the global models shift the high eastward and deepen a trough over the eastern United States. Consequently, the steering currents should collapse and Dorian is anticipated to drift toward the northwest and north-northwest while is moving over the northwestern Bahamas and near the east coast of Florida. After that time, the hurricane should begin to move a little faster northward as the trough over the eastern U.S deepens and should then steer the hurricane toward the northeast by the end of the forecast period. The guidance has not changed significantly since the earlier run, so it has not been necessary to adjust the NHC forecast in this advisory. The uncertainty in the track is high while the hurricane is moving slowly across the northwestern Bahamas and near the east coast of Florida. Any deviation of Dorian's core to the left would result in an increase in the winds along the east coast of Florida. Given that the area of tropical storm force winds could expand, and taking into account the uncertainty in the track forecast, a tropical storm watch was issued for the east of Florida from Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet. Key Messages: 1. A prolonged period of life-threatening storm surge, devastating hurricane-force winds, and heavy rains capable of life-threatening flash floods are expected on the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Sunday through Monday, and a hurricane warning is in effect for these areas. 2. A tropical storm watch is in effect for a portion of the Florida east coast. Since Dorian is forecast to slow down and turn northward as it approaches the coast, life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are still possible along portions of the Florida east coast by the early to middle part of next week. Residents should have their hurricane plan in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and listen to advice given by local emergency officials. 3. There is an increasing risk of strong winds and dangerous storm surge along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina during the middle of next week. Residents in these areas should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian. 4. Heavy rains, capable of life-threatening flash floods, are possible over coastal sections of the southeastern United States from Sunday through much of next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 26.2N 74.4W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 26.4N 75.7W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 26.6N 77.0W 130 KT 150 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 26.8N 78.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 27.2N 78.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 28.3N 79.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 31.0N 80.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 34.0N 77.0W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila/Brennan
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Hurricane Dorian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 30
2019-08-31 22:51:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 31 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 312051 PWSAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 2100 UTC SAT AUG 31 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 130 KTS...150 MPH...240 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 36(40) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 23(30) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) FAYETTEVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 34(39) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 41(50) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 41(51) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 38(47) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 37(48) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) 37(62) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 32(37) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 21(38) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) FLORENCE SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 12(28) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 35(52) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 29(33) 31(64) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 28(36) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 26(29) 29(58) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 19(27) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 33(38) 23(61) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 13(27) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 37(43) 15(58) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 7(23) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 8(25) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 38(45) 10(55) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 3(21) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 11(15) 44(59) 5(64) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 2(28) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 31(38) 3(41) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 26(34) 44(78) 3(81) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 35(41) 3(44) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 1(23) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 13(17) 40(57) 3(60) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 1(24) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 11(16) 28(44) 1(45) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 1(14) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 32(44) 28(72) 1(73) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 24(37) 1(38) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) X(15) THE VILLAGES 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 18(25) 23(48) 1(49) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) X(15) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) ORLANDO FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 10(15) 31(46) 18(64) 1(65) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 11(13) 15(28) X(28) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) COCOA BEACH FL 34 1 4( 5) 22(27) 29(56) 29(85) 6(91) X(91) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 31(47) 13(60) 1(61) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 10(33) 1(34) PATRICK AFB 34 1 1( 2) 8(10) 24(34) 32(66) 13(79) 1(80) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 25(32) 13(45) X(45) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 7(18) X(18) FT PIERCE FL 34 1 5( 6) 42(48) 25(73) 19(92) 2(94) X(94) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 21(29) 27(56) 6(62) 1(63) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 21(30) 4(34) 1(35) W PALM BEACH 34 1 7( 8) 48(56) 22(78) 12(90) 1(91) X(91) W PALM BEACH 50 X 1( 1) 12(13) 18(31) 20(51) 2(53) X(53) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 14(24) 2(26) X(26) FT LAUDERDALE 34 1 5( 6) 39(45) 20(65) 13(78) 2(80) X(80) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 11(18) 12(30) 2(32) X(32) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 2(12) X(12) MIAMI FL 34 1 2( 3) 11(14) 11(25) 14(39) 4(43) X(43) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 7(12) 1(13) X(13) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 1 1( 2) 7( 9) 8(17) 12(29) 4(33) X(33) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MARATHON FL 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 5(11) 12(23) 3(26) X(26) KEY WEST FL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 6(14) 2(16) X(16) NAPLES FL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 10(18) 6(24) X(24) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FT MYERS FL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 12(20) 8(28) X(28) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) VENICE FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 10(17) 9(26) X(26) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) TAMPA FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 13(19) 13(32) 1(33) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 14(20) 21(41) 1(42) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 1(14) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 1(15) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) GRAND BAHAMA 34 2 66(68) 28(96) 3(99) 1(99) X(99) X(99) GRAND BAHAMA 50 1 12(13) 60(73) 14(87) 5(92) X(92) X(92) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X 2( 2) 42(44) 18(62) 9(71) 1(72) X(72) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 3 52(55) 14(69) 6(75) 4(79) X(79) X(79) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 1 6( 7) 6(13) 4(17) 4(21) X(21) X(21) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ANDROS 34 2 5( 7) 8(15) 6(21) 9(30) 1(31) X(31) ANDROS 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GREAT EXUMA 34 2 2( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) SAN SALVADOR 34 3 2( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Hurricane Dorian (AT5/AL052019)
2019-08-31 22:51:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SEVERE HURRICANE DORIAN EXPECTED TO HIT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS HARD ON SUNDAY... As of 5:00 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 the center of Dorian was located near 26.2, -74.4 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 945 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 150 mph.
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Hurricane Dorian Public Advisory Number 30
2019-08-31 22:51:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 312051 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019 ...SEVERE HURRICANE DORIAN EXPECTED TO HIT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS HARD ON SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.2N 74.4W ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the east coast of Florida from Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Andros Island A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southern and central Florida should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian. Additional watches may be required for portions of the east coast of Florida tonight or Sunday. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 74.4 West. Dorian is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a slower westward motion should continue for the next day or two, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest. On this track, the core of Dorian should move be near or over portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and move closer to the Florida east coast late Monday through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely, but Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area across the northwestern Bahamas by Sunday, with tropical storm winds beginning tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area on Monday. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week: Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 inches, isolated 25 inches. Coastal sections of the southeast United States...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. Central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Swells will begin affect the east-facing shores of the Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila/Brennan
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Hurricane Dorian Forecast Advisory Number 30
2019-08-31 22:49:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 31 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 312049 TCMAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 2100 UTC SAT AUG 31 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO SEBASTIAN INLET. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANDROS ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DEERFIELD BEACH TO SEBASTIAN INLET A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN. ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 74.4W AT 31/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 74.4W AT 31/2100Z AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 74.0W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 26.4N 75.7W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 26.6N 77.0W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 26.8N 78.0W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 27.2N 78.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 28.3N 79.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 31.0N 80.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 34.0N 77.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.2N 74.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 01/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA/BRENNAN
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