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Hurricane Dorian Forecast Advisory Number 31

2019-09-01 04:51:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 01 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 010251 TCMAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0300 UTC SUN SEP 01 2019 CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANDROS ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DEERFIELD BEACH TO SEBASTIAN INLET A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN. ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 75.1W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 75.1W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 74.7W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 26.4N 76.3W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 26.6N 77.4W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 26.8N 78.1W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 27.0N 78.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 28.5N 79.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 31.1N 80.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 34.0N 77.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.3N 75.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 01/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Summary for Hurricane Dorian (AT5/AL052019)

2019-09-01 01:40:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REAFFIRM DORIAN'S CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH... As of 8:00 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 the center of Dorian was located near 26.2, -74.7 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 941 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 150 mph.

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Hurricane Dorian Public Advisory Number 30A

2019-09-01 01:40:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 312340 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 30A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 800 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019 ...NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REAFFIRM DORIAN'S CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.2N 74.7W ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Andros Island A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southern and central Florida should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian. Additional watches may be required for portions of the east coast of Florida tonight or Sunday. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 74.7 West. Dorian is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a slower westward motion should continue for the next day or two, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest. On this track, the core of Dorian should be near or over portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and move closer to the Florida east coast late Monday through Tuesday. Data from NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian remains a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely, but Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance aircraft is 941 mb (27.79 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area across the northwestern Bahamas by Sunday, with tropical storm winds beginning tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area on Monday. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week: Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 inches, isolated 25 inches. Coastal sections of the southeast United States...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. Central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Swells will begin affect the east-facing shores of the Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown/Cangialosi

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