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Hurricane Dorian Graphics

2019-08-31 04:43:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 31 Aug 2019 02:43:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 31 Aug 2019 03:24:36 GMT

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Hurricane Dorian Forecast Discussion Number 27

2019-08-31 04:41:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 310240 TCDAT5 Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019 The cloud pattern of Dorian has become quite impressive in infrared satellite imagery this evening. The eye has become very distinct and is surrounded by a very symmetric ring of deep convection. The upper-level outflow has also improved. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft this evening has measured peak SFMR winds of 119 kt, and a dropsonde dropped in the northeastern eyewall had mean winds in the lowest 150 m that also supported winds of 118 kt, so the initial wind speed has been raised to 120 kt. The latest center drop indicates a minimum pressure of around 948 mb, down 22 mb since this afternoon. Since Dorian will be traversing SSTs of around 29C and remain in a low shear environment, the current intensification phase may not be over. The NHC forecast is above the guidance and calls for some additional strengthening in the short-term. After that, fluctuations in intensity are likely due to eyewall replacement cycles that are difficult to predict. Although some decrease in wind speed could occur when Dorian slows down and causes some upwelling, all indications are that Dorian will remain an extremely powerful hurricane for the next several days. The hurricane is moving west-northwestward or 300 degrees at 9 kt. The ridge to the north of Dorian is expected to build during the next 24 hours, and this should cause Dorian's heading to bend westward toward the northwestern Bahamas. After 48 hours, the global models show an erosion of the western portion of the ridge, which is expected to cause the steering currents to collapse and the hurricane to slow down considerably by day 3. Later in the period, the models have again trended to a more significant weakness in the ridge which allows Dorian to turn northwestward, then northward near the east coast of Florida. Although the deterministic versions of the global models have trended northeastward again, the GFS and UKMET ensemble means are farther to the left. The updated NHC track forecast has been nudged northeastward and lies between the multi-model consensus aids and the aforementioned ensemble means. Although the official forecast track has been nudged northeastward to near the east coast of Florida the risk of significant impacts over much of the Florida peninsula remains high. Key Messages: 1. A prolonged period of life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force winds are likely in portions of the northwestern Bahamas, where a hurricane warning is in effect. Residents should execute their hurricane plan and listen to advice given by local emergency officials. 2. Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force winds are possible along portions of the Florida east coast by early next week, but since Dorian is forecast to slow down and turn northward near the coast, it is too soon to determine when or where the highest surge and winds will occur. Residents should have their hurricane plan in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and listen to advice given by local emergency officials. 3. A prolonged period of storm surge, high winds, and rainfall is possible in portions of Florida into next week, including the possibility of hurricane-force winds over inland portions of the Florida peninsula. 4. Heavy rains, capable of life-threatening flash floods, are expected over portions of the Bahamas and coastal sections of the southeastern United States this weekend through much of next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0300Z 25.5N 71.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 31/1200Z 25.9N 72.8W 130 KT 150 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 26.3N 74.5W 130 KT 150 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 26.6N 76.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 26.8N 77.3W 125 KT 145 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 27.0N 78.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 28.3N 80.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 05/0000Z 30.8N 81.2W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

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Hurricane Dorian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27

2019-08-31 04:40:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 31 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 310240 PWSAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0300 UTC SAT AUG 31 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 17(22) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 21(29) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 23(33) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 22(27) 26(53) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 26(42) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 27(40) 26(66) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 20(31) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 24(30) 27(57) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 15(21) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 26(34) 25(59) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 10(18) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 15(19) 39(58) 18(76) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 15(39) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 7(15) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 12(15) 35(50) 18(68) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 12(27) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 20(25) 43(68) 12(80) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 25(30) 12(42) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 6(18) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) 39(59) 29(88) 5(93) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 33(54) 9(63) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 25(33) 7(40) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 31(39) 40(79) 8(87) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 33(46) 9(55) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) 5(27) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 27(32) 43(75) 18(93) 3(96) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 31(36) 33(69) 3(72) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 29(46) 4(50) W PALM BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 32(38) 40(78) 15(93) 1(94) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 34(41) 28(69) 2(71) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 26(43) 2(45) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 26(31) 39(70) 16(86) 1(87) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 27(31) 22(53) 1(54) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 17(30) 2(32) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 32(41) 21(62) 2(64) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 18(31) 1(32) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 1(17) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 27(34) 20(54) 2(56) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 15(24) 1(25) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 20(26) 13(39) 1(40) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 11(15) 11(26) 2(28) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 14(18) 28(46) 4(50) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 2(18) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 15(19) 32(51) 6(57) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 3(21) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 11(14) 29(43) 8(51) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 4(18) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 33(46) 12(58) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 7(20) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 29(39) 19(58) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 12(21) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 16(25) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 15(27) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 16(27) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 13(27) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 2( 2) 28(30) 51(81) 15(96) 2(98) X(98) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 39(43) 34(77) 8(85) 1(86) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 35(54) 10(64) 1(65) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 1 4( 5) 31(36) 27(63) 13(76) 3(79) X(79) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) 12(31) 4(35) X(35) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 2(14) X(14) ANDROS 34 1 2( 3) 7(10) 12(22) 17(39) 5(44) 1(45) ANDROS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) GREAT EXUMA 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 4(12) 8(20) 2(22) X(22) GREAT EXUMA 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 2 11(13) 5(18) 3(21) 5(26) 2(28) X(28) SAN SALVADOR 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAYAGUANA 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Hurricane Dorian Public Advisory Number 27

2019-08-31 04:40:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 310240 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019 ...DORIAN EVEN STRONGER... ...NOW PACKING 140 MPH WINDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.5N 71.4W ABOUT 545 MI...880 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Andros Island A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests in southern and central Florida should monitor the progress of Dorian. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 71.4 West. Dorian is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slower west-northwestward to westward motion should begin tonight and continue into early next week. On this track, the core of Dorian should move over the Atlantic well north of the southeastern and central Bahamas tonight and tomorrow, be near or over the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and be near the Florida east coast late Monday. Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight and Saturday. Although fluctuations in intensity are possible early next week, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The latest minimum central pressure based on data from a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is 948 mb (28.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in the northwestern Bahamas by Sunday, with tropical storm winds beginning Saturday night. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast,the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week: Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches. Coastal sections of the southeast United States...6 to 12 inches, isolated 18 inches. Central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Swells are likely to begin affecting the east-facing shores of the Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Hurricane Dorian Forecast Advisory Number 27

2019-08-31 04:39:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 31 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 310239 TCMAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0300 UTC SAT AUG 31 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANDROS ISLAND A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 71.4W AT 31/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 71.4W AT 31/0300Z AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 71.0W FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 25.9N 72.8W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 26.3N 74.5W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 26.6N 76.0W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 26.8N 77.3W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 27.0N 78.6W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 28.3N 80.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 30.8N 81.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 71.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 31/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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