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Hurricane Dorian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29

2019-08-31 16:55:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 31 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 311455 PWSAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 1500 UTC SAT AUG 31 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 130 KTS...150 MPH...240 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 25(31) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) FAYETTEVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 27(31) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 34(41) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 35(43) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 34(40) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 35(43) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 39(58) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 30(33) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 28(39) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) FLORENCE SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 18(29) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 38(51) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 36(62) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 28(34) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 35(57) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 23(29) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 28(31) 30(61) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 19(28) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 31(36) 23(59) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 11(23) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 12(25) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 33(39) 18(57) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 7(20) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 10(13) 42(55) 10(65) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 5(29) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 30(36) 7(43) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 24(30) 44(74) 7(81) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 33(37) 7(44) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 2(23) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 12(15) 40(55) 7(62) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 3(25) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 11(15) 29(44) 2(46) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 29(37) 38(75) 3(78) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 29(40) 2(42) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) X(15) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 18(23) 27(50) 3(53) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 1(18) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) ORLANDO FL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 31(41) 25(66) 1(67) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 20(31) 1(32) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 1(15) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X 2( 2) 12(14) 28(42) 37(79) 12(91) 1(92) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 32(39) 22(61) 1(62) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 19(35) 1(36) PATRICK AFB 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 13(19) 43(62) 19(81) 1(82) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 21(25) 22(47) 1(48) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 11(21) 1(22) FT PIERCE FL 34 X 3( 3) 24(27) 30(57) 29(86) 5(91) 1(92) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 33(49) 13(62) 1(63) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 22(26) 10(36) 1(37) W PALM BEACH 34 X 4( 4) 29(33) 29(62) 22(84) 4(88) X(88) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 25(43) 5(48) 1(49) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 16(20) 5(25) X(25) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 4( 4) 21(25) 24(49) 22(71) 4(75) X(75) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 17(27) 3(30) 1(31) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) 1(12) MIAMI FL 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 12(18) 17(35) 5(40) 1(41) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 2(12) 1(13) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 16(27) 6(33) X(33) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) MARATHON FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 12(21) 3(24) 1(25) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 8(14) 3(17) X(17) NAPLES FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 12(18) 8(26) 1(27) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FT MYERS FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 14(20) 9(29) 1(30) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 11(16) 10(26) 1(27) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 12(17) 17(34) 1(35) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 15(19) 23(42) 2(44) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 2(14) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 2(15) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 1(13) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) GRAND BAHAMA 34 1 21(22) 64(86) 9(95) 4(99) X(99) X(99) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X 2( 2) 41(43) 24(67) 15(82) 2(84) X(84) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) 18(18) 22(40) 18(58) 2(60) X(60) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 2 23(25) 35(60) 9(69) 7(76) 1(77) X(77) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X 2( 2) 8(10) 6(16) 5(21) 1(22) X(22) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ANDROS 34 1 4( 5) 9(14) 9(23) 9(32) 1(33) X(33) ANDROS 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GREAT EXUMA 34 2 2( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) 4(15) 1(16) X(16) SAN SALVADOR 34 4 3( 7) 4(11) 2(13) 4(17) X(17) X(17) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Summary for Hurricane Dorian (AT5/AL052019)

2019-08-31 16:55:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...DORIAN'S FURY AIMING AT THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... As of 11:00 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 the center of Dorian was located near 26.0, -73.4 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 945 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 150 mph.

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Hurricane Dorian Public Advisory Number 29

2019-08-31 16:55:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 311455 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019 ...DORIAN'S FURY AIMING AT THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.0N 73.4W ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM ENE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Andros Island A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests in southern and central Florida should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian. Watches may be required for portions of the east coast of Florida later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 26.0 North, longitude 73.4 West. Dorian is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h) and a slower westward motion should continue into early next week. On this track, the core of Dorian should move over the Atlantic well north of the southeastern and central Bahamas today, be near or over the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and move near the Florida east coast late Monday through Tuesday. Data from both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter planes indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely, but Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The minimum central pressure reported from both reconnaissance planes was 945 mb (27.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area across the northwestern Bahamas by Sunday, with tropical storm winds beginning tonight. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week: Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 inches, isolated 25 inches. Coastal sections of the southeast United States...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. Central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Swells will begin affect the east-facing shores of the Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

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Hurricane Dorian Forecast Advisory Number 29

2019-08-31 16:55:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 31 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 311455 TCMAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 1500 UTC SAT AUG 31 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANDROS ISLAND A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA LATER TODAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 73.4W AT 31/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 73.4W AT 31/1500Z AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 73.0W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 26.2N 74.7W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 26.6N 76.2W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 26.8N 77.4W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 27.0N 78.0W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 28.0N 79.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 90SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 30.5N 80.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 33.5N 78.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.0N 73.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 31/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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