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Summary for Hurricane Dorian (AT5/AL052019)

2019-08-31 10:48:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...DORIAN CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... As of 5:00 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 the center of Dorian was located near 25.8, -72.6 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 948 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 140 mph.

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Hurricane Dorian Public Advisory Number 28

2019-08-31 10:48:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 310847 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019 ...DORIAN CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.8N 72.6W ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Andros Island A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests in southern and central Florida should monitor the progress of Dorian. Watches may be required for portions of the east coast of Florida later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 72.6 West. Dorian is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A slower west-northwestward to westward motion should begin later today and continue into early next week. On this track, the core of Dorian should move over the Atlantic well north of the southeastern and central Bahamas today, be near or over the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and be near the Florida east coast late Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is possible today. Although fluctuations in intensity are possible early next week, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area across the northwestern Bahamas by Sunday, with tropical storm winds beginning tonight. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week: Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 inches, isolated 25 inches. Coastal sections of the southeast United States...6 to 12 inches, isolated 18 inches. Central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Swells are likely to begin affecting the east-facing shores of the Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Hurricane Dorian Forecast Advisory Number 28

2019-08-31 10:47:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 31 2019 544 WTNT25 KNHC 310847 TCMAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0900 UTC SAT AUG 31 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANDROS ISLAND A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA LATER TODAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 72.6W AT 31/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 72.6W AT 31/0900Z AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 72.1W FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 26.1N 74.0W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 26.5N 75.8W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 26.7N 77.2W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 26.9N 78.1W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 27.5N 79.4W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 29.5N 80.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 32.0N 80.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.8N 72.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 31/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Hurricane Dorian Public Advisory Number 27A

2019-08-31 07:35:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 310535 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 27A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 200 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019 ...WINDS IN DORIAN REMAIN NEAR 140 MPH... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.6N 72.0W ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Andros Island A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests in southern and central Florida should monitor the progress of Dorian. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 72.0 West. Dorian is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slower west-northwestward to westward motion should begin later today and continue into early next week. On this track, the core of Dorian should move over the Atlantic well north of the southeastern and central Bahamas today, be near or over the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and be near the Florida east coast late Monday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is possible today. Although fluctuations in intensity are possible early next week, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in the northwestern Bahamas by Sunday, with tropical storm winds beginning tonight. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast,the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week: Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches. Coastal sections of the southeast United States...6 to 12 inches, isolated 18 inches. Central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Swells are likely to begin affecting the east-facing shores of the Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

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