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Tropical Storm Rene Forecast Discussion Number 14
2020-09-10 16:38:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 10 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 101438 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 10 2020 Vertical shear appears to have lessened somewhat over Rene, with the estimated center more embedded within the convective cloud mass. The storm has also developed a better defined anticyclonic outflow pattern. Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB are 45 kt, and that will be used for the advisory intensity. Since the vertical shear is not expected to be strong for the next 48 hours or so, gradual strengthening is anticipated during that time, and Rene is forecast to become a hurricane by Saturday. This is in reasonable agreement with the latest intensity model consensus, IVCN. In the latter half of the forecast period, increased westerly shear over the tropical cyclone is expected, which should lead to weakening. Rene continues on a west-northwestward track, and is moving at about 285/10 kt. The tropical cyclone is currently located on the southwest side of a mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic. Over the next few days, Rene should move around the western periphery of this ridge and turn from a west-northwestward to a north-northwestward heading. Around the end of the forecast period, a high building to the northwest of the cyclone will likely cause a significant slowing of the forward speed. The official track forecast is a little left of the previous one to be in better agreement with the latest model consensus predictions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 18.6N 35.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 19.0N 37.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 19.6N 39.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 20.4N 41.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 21.7N 43.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 13/0000Z 23.1N 45.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 24.7N 47.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 14/1200Z 27.6N 49.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 15/1200Z 29.2N 50.3W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Rene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2020-09-10 16:38:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 10 2020 156 FONT13 KNHC 101438 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM RENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 1500 UTC THU SEP 10 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm Rene (AT3/AL182020)
2020-09-10 16:37:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RENE STRONGER... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Sep 10 the center of Rene was located near 18.6, -35.8 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Rene Public Advisory Number 14
2020-09-10 16:37:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 10 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 101437 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rene Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 10 2020 ...RENE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.6N 35.8W ABOUT 800 MI...1285 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 35.8 West. Rene is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the northwest. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast for the next couple of days, and Rene is expected to become a hurricane by Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Rene Forecast Advisory Number 14
2020-09-10 16:37:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 10 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 101437 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 1500 UTC THU SEP 10 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 35.8W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 35.8W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 35.4W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.0N 37.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 19.6N 39.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 20.4N 41.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 21.7N 43.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 23.1N 45.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 24.7N 47.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 27.6N 49.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 29.2N 50.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 35.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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