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Tropical Storm Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 46
2018-10-10 22:41:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 102040 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 46 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 200 PM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018 The organization of the cloud pattern has remained unchanged during the day, except that the deep convection has continued to weaken. Nevertheless, Dvorak numbers from TAFB and SAB still support an initial intensity of 55 kt. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next 12 hours while the cyclone is over relatively warm waters and is embedded in a low shear environment. Since both of these factors will become unfavorable in about 12 to 24 hours, the NHC forecast calls for weakening. Sergio, however, is expected to still be a tropical storm by the time it approaches the Baja California peninsula. After that time, Sergio will move over mainland Mexico and weaken much faster. Sergio is moving toward the northeast or 050 degrees at 12 kt. The cyclone is embedded within the southwesterly winds associated with a large mid-latitude trough, and this flow pattern will continue to steer Sergio toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed. The forecast track brings the center of a weakened Sergio over the central portion of the Baja California peninsula in about a day and half, but winds will reach the coast a little bit earlier. Track models continue to be in very good agreement, and consequently the guidance envelope is quite tight. The NHC forecast remains unchanged and is in the middle of the guidance envelope. The primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants continues to be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain in the Mexico states of Baja California Sur, Sonora, the U.S. Southern Plains, and the Ozarks through the weekend. For more information about this potential hazard, see products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local weather forecast office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 19.2N 122.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 20.7N 120.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 23.3N 117.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 26.0N 114.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 29.0N 111.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 13/1800Z 33.0N 101.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Sergio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 46
2018-10-10 22:40:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 10 2018 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 102040 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 46 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 2100 UTC WED OCT 10 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 6(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) P ABREOJOS 34 X 1( 1) 31(32) 26(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) LORETO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 33(33) 8(41) X(41) X(41) HERMOSILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) HERMOSILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 42(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) BAHIA KINO 50 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) BAHIA KINO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 33(35) 2(37) X(37) X(37) GUAYMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GUAYMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 115W 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 115W 34 X 5( 5) 59(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) 24(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) 25N 115W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 73 1(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) 20N 120W 50 24 2(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) 25N 120W 34 1 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 125W 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Summary for Tropical Storm Sergio (EP1/EP212018)
2018-10-10 22:40:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SERGIO FORECAST TO WEAKEN BUT HEAVY RAINS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND... As of 2:00 PM PDT Wed Oct 10 the center of Sergio was located near 19.2, -122.4 with movement NE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Sergio Public Advisory Number 46
2018-10-10 22:40:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 102040 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sergio Advisory Number 46 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 200 PM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018 ...SERGIO FORECAST TO WEAKEN BUT HEAVY RAINS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 122.4W ABOUT 845 MI...1360 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia San Juan Bautista to San Evaristo A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of Sergio. A tropical storm warning may be required for a portion of the watch area later tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 122.4 West. Sergio is moving toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A northeastward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Sergio will approach the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur early Friday and then reach mainland Mexico late Friday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely today and Thursday, but gradual weakening is anticipated during the next several days. Sergio is expected to reach the Baja California peninsula as a tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Sergio is expected to produce total storm rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with local amounts of 10 inches across the central portion of the Baja California peninsula and Sonora. This could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain. By this weekend, rainfall associated with Sergio will move into portions of the Southern Plains and the Ozarks of the United States. Storm total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible. WIND: Tropical storm conditions could begin within the watch areas by Thursday night. SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the Baja California Peninsula later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM PDT. Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Sergio Forecast Advisory Number 46
2018-10-10 22:40:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 10 2018 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 102039 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 46 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 2100 UTC WED OCT 10 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO CABO SAN LAZARO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SERGIO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA LATER TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 122.4W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 240SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 122.4W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 123.1W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.7N 120.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 23.3N 117.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 26.0N 114.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 140SE 100SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 29.0N 111.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 100SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 33.0N 101.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 122.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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