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Post-Tropical Cyclone LISA Forecast Advisory Number 22
2016-09-25 04:38:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 25 2016 000 WTNT23 KNHC 250238 TCMAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LISA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 0300 UTC SUN SEP 25 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 40.8W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 40.8W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 40.4W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 27.2N 42.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 29.3N 42.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 31.4N 42.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.8N 40.8W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT2 AND WMO HEADER FZNT02 KNHC. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN/ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression LISA Graphics
2016-09-24 22:38:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 24 Sep 2016 20:38:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 24 Sep 2016 20:34:35 GMT
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Tropical Depression LISA Forecast Discussion Number 21
2016-09-24 22:37:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST SAT SEP 24 2016 000 WTNT43 KNHC 242037 TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 500 PM AST SAT SEP 24 2016 Lisa has been devoid of thunderstorm activity since the convective burst dissipated shortly after 1200 UTC. Assuming some additional spin down since the ASCAT pass this morning, the initial wind speed is lowered to 30 kt, making Lisa a tropical depression again. Meteosat dust product images from the GOES-R Proving Ground indicate that a plume of Saharan dust is approaching Lisa from the east. This dry air combined with westerly shear should cause the depression to degenerate to a remnant low by tonight and continue weakening during the next day or two. The global models are in fair agreement in showing the low opening into a trough in 36 to 48 hours before it gets absorbed by a cold front. Lisa is moving northwestward at 10 kt. A gradual turn to the north is expected during the next day or two while the high pressure system to the north of Lisa shifts eastward. The NHC track forecast is slightly to the left of the previous one, and is in best agreement with the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 25.3N 39.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 26.4N 41.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 25/1800Z 28.4N 42.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/0600Z 30.5N 42.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression LISA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2016-09-24 22:36:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 24 2016 000 FONT13 KNHC 242035 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 2100 UTC SAT SEP 24 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Tropical Depression LISA (AT3/AL132016)
2016-09-24 22:35:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LISA WEAKENS BACK TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 24 the center of LISA was located near 25.3, -39.7 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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