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Tropical Depression LISA Graphics
2016-09-24 05:11:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 24 Sep 2016 02:49:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 24 Sep 2016 03:06:05 GMT
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Tropical Depression LISA Forecast Discussion Number 18
2016-09-24 04:49:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST FRI SEP 23 2016 000 WTNT43 KNHC 240248 TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 1100 PM AST FRI SEP 23 2016 Lisa continues to suffer from strong vertical wind shear. There has been no deep convection within 120 nm of the center for nearly 12 hours now, though occasional bursts of convection have been noted a little farther than that to the north. A 2324 ASCAT-B pass showed several 35-kt wind vectors between the center and the convection farther to the north. Based on this new information, it is believed that Lisa was still a tropical storm at the time of the previous advisory and at 0000 UTC. Given the lack of deep convection since that time, the initial intensity has been held at 30 kt. Regardless of the maximum winds, the dynamical guidance all suggest that the strong shear and dry mid- and upper-level air will continue to suppress convection near the center, and Lisa is forecast to be declared post-tropical within 12 hours. The remnant circulation should last a day or two after that, before dissipating ahead of a deep-layer trough approaching from the west. The depression may finally be beginning to speed up, and the initial motion estimate is 315/07. The low-level remnants of Lisa are still forecast to move west-northwestward, with a gradual turn toward the north in a day or two while it moves around the periphery of the subtropical high centered near the Azores. The official forecast has again been nudged westward, but lies a little to the right of the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 23.2N 37.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 23.9N 38.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 25/0000Z 25.0N 40.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 25/1200Z 26.4N 42.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/0000Z 28.8N 42.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven/Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression LISA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2016-09-24 04:48:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 24 2016 000 FONT13 KNHC 240247 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 0300 UTC SAT SEP 24 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN/ZELINSKY
Summary for Tropical Depression LISA (AT3/AL132016)
2016-09-24 04:48:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LISA EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON SATURDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Sep 23 the center of LISA was located near 23.2, -37.3 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression LISA Public Advisory Number 18
2016-09-24 04:48:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST FRI SEP 23 2016 000 WTNT33 KNHC 240247 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 1100 PM AST FRI SEP 23 2016 ...LISA EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.2N 37.3W ABOUT 995 MI...1605 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1190 MI...1915 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Lisa was located near latitude 23.2 North, longitude 37.3 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest and an increase in forward speed is expected on Saturday, before a turn back toward the northwest and then north on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. A decrease in the maximum winds is forecast for the next 48 hours, and Lisa is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone on Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven/Zelinsky
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