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Hurricane EDOUARD Graphics

2014-09-16 23:12:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2014 20:50:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2014 21:06:49 GMT

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Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 22

2014-09-16 22:57:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST TUE SEP 16 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 162057 TCDAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 500 PM AST TUE SEP 16 2014 Microwave and NOAA Hurricane Hunter radar data suggest that Edouard has begun an eyewall cycle, with a pair of concentric rings seen in a 1605 UTC GCOM microwave image. The last few passes from the aircraft had a maximum flight-level wind of 93 kt, with 85 kt from the SFMR observed a few hours ago. These data suggest an initial wind speed of 90 kt for this advisory. Since the hurricane has less than 24 hours over warm water, it is not expected to complete its eyewall cycle, and will probably slowly weaken. After that time, Edouard should continue to lose strength when it moves over much cooler water and into higher shear. The NHC forecast is lower than the previous one, below most of the guidance for the first day in consideration of the current structure, then is blended with the intensity consensus after that time. The cyclone is expected to become post-tropical in the day 3 or 4 time frame, and become extratropical by day 5 since most of the global models show it developing frontal features by that time. Edouard has turned toward the north and is moving a little faster at about 13 kt. The hurricane will move northeastward into the mid-latitude westerlies during the next 24-36 hours while it moves on the northwest side of the subtropical high. An eastward acceleration is expected by 48 hours, and the cyclone is still forecast to turn southeastward and slow down on days 4 and 5 when it moves around a trough over the eastern Atlantic. Model guidance is in much better agreement than the last cycle and the official forecast is very close to the previous one, near the model consensus and the ECMWF model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 32.3N 57.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 34.3N 56.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 37.2N 52.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 39.7N 47.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 40.9N 42.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 40.2N 37.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 20/1800Z 39.4N 34.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 21/1800Z 36.0N 33.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Blake

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Summary for Hurricane EDOUARD (AT1/AL062014)

2014-09-16 22:49:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...AFTER REACHING 115 MPH EDOUARD BEGINS TO WEAKEN... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Sep 16 the center of EDOUARD was located near 32.3, -57.5 with movement N at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 958 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

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Hurricane EDOUARD Public Advisory Number 22

2014-09-16 22:49:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST TUE SEP 16 2014 000 WTNT31 KNHC 162049 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 500 PM AST TUE SEP 16 2014 ...AFTER REACHING 115 MPH EDOUARD BEGINS TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.3N 57.5W ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM E OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1670 MI...2685 KM W OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.5 WEST. EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH A LARGE INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE EAST ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS FROM EDOUARD WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES NORTH OF EASTERN FLORIDA BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG MOST OF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Advisory Number 22

2014-09-16 22:48:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 16 2014 000 WTNT21 KNHC 162048 TCMAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 2100 UTC TUE SEP 16 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 57.5W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......160NE 150SE 130SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..280NE 290SE 230SW 220NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 57.5W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 57.7W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 34.3N 56.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 45SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 140SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 37.2N 52.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 160SE 160SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 39.7N 47.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 160SE 160SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 40.9N 42.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 160SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 40.2N 37.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 150SE 180SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 39.4N 34.6W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 36.0N 33.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.3N 57.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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