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Tropical Storm Kirk Graphics
2018-09-22 16:36:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 22 Sep 2018 14:36:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 22 Sep 2018 15:28:06 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Kirk (AT2/AL122018)
2018-09-22 16:34:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS WELL SOUTH OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Sep 22 the center of Kirk was located near 8.3, -23.6 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Kirk Public Advisory Number 1
2018-09-22 16:34:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 22 2018 898 WTNT32 KNHC 221434 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kirk Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 22 2018 ...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS WELL SOUTH OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...8.3N 23.6W ABOUT 450 MI...730 KM S OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was located near latitude 8.3 North, longitude 23.6 West. Kirk is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h) and a westward to west- northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is expected to continue through tonight. A faster westward motion across the deep tropical Atlantic Ocean is expected Sunday through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast through Sunday, with little change in intensity forecast on Monday and Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km), mainly to the northwest of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm Kirk Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2018-09-22 16:34:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 22 2018 906 FONT12 KNHC 221434 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122018 1500 UTC SAT SEP 22 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 8.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 23.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tropical Storm Kirk Forecast Advisory Number 1
2018-09-22 16:32:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 22 2018 377 WTNT22 KNHC 221432 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122018 1500 UTC SAT SEP 22 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 23.6W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 23.6W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.1N 22.9W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 8.8N 25.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 9.3N 29.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 9.4N 34.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 9.6N 38.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 10.3N 46.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 11.0N 53.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 12.5N 58.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 8.3N 23.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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