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Summary for Tropical Depression Kirk (AT2/AL122018)

2018-09-24 10:32:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...KIRK MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Sep 24 the center of Kirk was located near 9.5, -37.4 with movement W at 24 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Tropical Depression Kirk Public Advisory Number 8

2018-09-24 10:32:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 24 2018 428 WTNT32 KNHC 240832 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Kirk Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 500 AM AST Mon Sep 24 2018 ...KIRK MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.5N 37.4W ABOUT 950 MI...1530 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1615 MI...2600 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Kirk was located near latitude 9.5 North, longitude 37.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 24 mph (39 km/h), and this fast motion is expected to continue for another day or so. A decrease in forward speed is expected by Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Although slight strengthening is forecast during the next few days, it is possible that Kirk could degenerate into a trough of low pressure during the next day or two while it moves quickly across the tropical central Atlantic. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Depression Kirk Forecast Advisory Number 8

2018-09-24 10:32:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 24 2018 429 WTNT22 KNHC 240832 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122018 0900 UTC MON SEP 24 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 37.4W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 21 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 37.4W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 36.4W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 9.9N 40.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 10.2N 44.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 10.5N 48.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 10.9N 51.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 12.1N 57.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 13.2N 61.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 14.0N 66.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.5N 37.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Depression Kirk Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

2018-09-24 10:32:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 24 2018 473 FONT12 KNHC 240832 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122018 0900 UTC MON SEP 24 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 4(12) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 2(14) GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) PORT OF SPAIN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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