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Tropical Storm Kirk Forecast Advisory Number 5
2018-09-23 16:30:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 23 2018 990 WTNT22 KNHC 231430 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122018 1500 UTC SUN SEP 23 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 30.2W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 30.2W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.2N 29.3W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 9.8N 33.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 10.2N 37.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 10.5N 41.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 10.7N 45.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 11.2N 52.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 12.3N 57.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 13.5N 62.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.3N 30.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Kirk Graphics
2018-09-23 10:35:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 23 Sep 2018 08:35:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 23 Sep 2018 09:28:05 GMT
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Tropical Storm Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 4
2018-09-23 10:33:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018 523 WTNT42 KNHC 230833 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 500 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018 Recent microwave data show that Kirk's center is located near the eastern edge of the deep convection. There are a few curved bands trying to form, but overall the convective activity is oriented along an east-west line extending west of the center. Since Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB are T2.5, the initial intensity remains 35 kt. Kirk has been accelerating since yesterday, and the current motion is westward, or 280 degrees, at 16 kt. Low- to mid-level ridging over the eastern Atlantic is expected to cause Kirk to move even faster toward the west during the next couple of days, reaching speeds of at least 22 kt in 24-36 hours. A reduction in speed is likely after 48 hours once Kirk moves south of a large central Atlantic trough, but it should still be moving along at a pretty good clip. The forecast thinking is the same as in previous advisories, with the latest NHC track forecast still closely following a blend of the GFS, ECMWF, and HFIP Corrected Consensus model along the southern edge of the guidance envelope. This new prediction is a little faster than what was indicated in the previous advisory. Kirk will be moving over increasingly warmer waters and through a relatively low-shear environment for the next 2-3 days, which should allow for some strengthening. The biggest limiting factors for intensification would be the cyclone's fast motion and possible entrainment of dry air. Like every other tropical cyclone which has approached the Lesser Antilles from the east this season, Kirk is expected to run into strong westerly shear in 4-5 days, resulting in weakening as the cyclone gets closer to the islands. The NHC official forecast is still not as high as the statistical-dynamical guidance and more closely follows the HCCA, Florida State Superensemble, and intensity consensus, as well as the trends in the GFS and ECMWF. Based on those global models, it is possible that Kirk may open up into a trough as it is approaching the Lesser Antilles and moving into the eastern Caribbean Sea, but for now the official forecast maintains Kirk as a tropical storm through day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 9.1N 28.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 9.5N 30.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 10.0N 35.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 10.2N 39.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 10.4N 43.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 26/0600Z 10.9N 51.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 27/0600Z 12.0N 57.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 28/0600Z 13.0N 61.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Kirk Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2018-09-23 10:33:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 23 2018 141 FONT12 KNHC 230833 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122018 0900 UTC SUN SEP 23 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Summary for Tropical Storm Kirk (AT2/AL122018)
2018-09-23 10:33:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KIRK ACCELERATING WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Sep 23 the center of Kirk was located near 9.1, -28.0 with movement W at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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