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Tropical Storm Kirk Public Advisory Number 4
2018-09-23 10:33:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018 098 WTNT32 KNHC 230833 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kirk Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 500 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018 ...KIRK ACCELERATING WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.1N 28.0W ABOUT 465 MI...745 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was located near latitude 9.1 North, longitude 28.0 West. Kirk is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). An even faster westward motion across the deep tropical Atlantic Ocean is expected through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two. Weakening is likely during the middle to latter part of the week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Kirk Forecast Advisory Number 4
2018-09-23 10:33:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 23 2018 099 WTNT22 KNHC 230833 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122018 0900 UTC SUN SEP 23 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.1N 28.0W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.1N 28.0W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 27.1W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 9.5N 30.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 10.0N 35.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 10.2N 39.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 10.4N 43.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 10.9N 51.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 12.0N 57.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 13.0N 61.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.1N 28.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Kirk Graphics
2018-09-23 04:45:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 23 Sep 2018 02:45:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 23 Sep 2018 03:28:10 GMT
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Tropical Storm Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 3
2018-09-23 04:43:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 22 2018 605 WTNT42 KNHC 230243 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 22 2018 The overall organization of Kirk has changed little since the previous advisory. The deep convection that was over the western portion of the circulation has continued to race westward ahead of the low-level center while a new burst of convection has developed closer to the center this evening. A couple of ASCAT passes from just prior to 0000 UTC did not reveal any winds as strong as this morning, but given the recent increase in convection near the center the initial intensity is maintained at 35 kt, which could be a little generous. Recent satellite fixes show that Kirk is moving west-northwestward or 285 degrees at 14 kt. A narrow subtropical ridge that is forecast to build westward to the north of Kirk should steer the cyclone quickly westward during the next few days, with forward speeds increasing to around 20-22 kt. After that time, the global models predict that a weakness will develop in the ridge between 50W and 60W which is forecast to cause Kirk to slow down and turn west-northwestward. The updated NHC track forecast is a little north of the previous advisory, primarily due to a slightly more northward initial position as noted in the ASCAT data. Otherwise, the track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is along the southern edge of the guidance, closest to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF, and the HFIP corrected consensus. Kirk is forecast to traverse warm waters and remain within a low shear environment during the next couple of days. These conditions favor strengthening, however as mentioned in the previous discussion, some dry air lurking just to the north of Kirk could get entrained into the circulation and limit intensification. There is still large spread in the intensity guidance with the statistical guidance showing much more intensification between 24 and 72 h. After 72 hours, increasing westerly shear is expected to cause weakening. The NHC intensity forecast remains near the HCCA and IVCN intensity guidance, and follows the trend of the ECMWF and GFS models that weaken Kirk later in the forecast period. Given the spread in the guidance, the intensity forecast is of low confidence. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 9.0N 26.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 9.4N 28.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 9.9N 33.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 10.1N 37.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 10.2N 41.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 10.6N 49.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 27/0000Z 11.8N 55.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 28/0000Z 13.3N 60.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm Kirk (AT2/AL122018)
2018-09-23 04:43:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KIRK MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Sep 22 the center of Kirk was located near 9.0, -26.4 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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