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Summary for Remnants of Kirk (AT2/AL122018)
2018-09-24 16:34:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KIRK NO LONGER HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION... ...ADVISORIES ARE BEING DISCONTINUED... As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 24 the center of Kirk was located near 10.0, -39.5 with movement W at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Remnants of Kirk Public Advisory Number 9
2018-09-24 16:34:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 24 2018 113 WTNT32 KNHC 241434 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Remnants Of Kirk Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 24 2018 ...KIRK NO LONGER HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION... ...ADVISORIES ARE BEING DISCONTINUED... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.0N 39.5W ABOUT 1070 MI...1725 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1470 MI...2365 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the remnants of Kirk were located near latitude 10.0 North, longitude 39.5 West. The remnants are moving toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system unless regeneration occurs. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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kirk
Remnants of Kirk Forecast Advisory Number 9
2018-09-24 16:33:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 24 2018 827 WTNT22 KNHC 241433 TCMAT2 REMNANTS OF KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122018 1500 UTC MON SEP 24 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 39.5W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 39.5W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 38.5W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.0N 39.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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kirk
Tropical Depression Kirk Graphics
2018-09-24 10:34:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 24 Sep 2018 08:34:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 24 Sep 2018 09:22:03 GMT
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kirk
Tropical Depression Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 8
2018-09-24 10:33:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 24 2018 632 WTNT42 KNHC 240833 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Kirk Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 500 AM AST Mon Sep 24 2018 After having a minimal amount of deep convection late yesterday, Kirk is now producing some thunderstorm activity in fragmented bands around the estimated center. However, earlier ASCAT data and low cloud motion suggest that the circulation resembles a sharp trough instead of a closed low that is necessary for a tropical cyclone. Hopefully more visible satellite images and additional scatterometer data will help better assess the circulation and status of Kirk. For now, advisories are being maintained on the system, and the initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data and a blend of the Dvorak estimates. Kirk is moving very quickly to the west at about 21 kt, which is likely the reason why the system has been struggling. A continued westward motion but at a decreasing forward speed is expected during the next two to three days while the cyclone remains on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge. After that time, a large deep-layer low pressure system over the central Atlantic should cause Kirk to gain more latitude. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one, and remains near the southern side of the guidance envelope near the GFS and ECMWF models. This forecast takes Kirk toward the Lesser Antilles in 3 to 4 days and interests there should monitor the progress of this system. Although Kirk will be moving over warmer SSTs and remain in relatively moist conditions, its fast forward speed will likely limit the system from strengthening significantly during the next few days, so only a little intensification is predicted. The global models show a notable increase in westerly shear when Kirk reaches the eastern Caribbean Sea in about 4 days, and that should cause weakening and possibly even dissipation by the end of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the lower side of the guidance envelope, in best agreement with the NOAA HCCA model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 9.5N 37.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 9.9N 40.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 10.2N 44.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 10.5N 48.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 10.9N 51.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 12.1N 57.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 28/0600Z 13.2N 61.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 29/0600Z 14.0N 66.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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