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Tropical Storm Kirk Forecast Advisory Number 6
2018-09-23 22:31:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 23 2018 070 WTNT22 KNHC 232030 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122018 2100 UTC SUN SEP 23 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 32.3W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 32.3W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 31.3W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 9.9N 35.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 10.2N 39.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 10.4N 43.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 10.6N 47.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 11.6N 53.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 12.9N 58.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 14.0N 63.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.5N 32.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 5
2018-09-23 16:31:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018 730 WTNT42 KNHC 231431 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018 Kirk's cloud pattern has a figure 6 configuration, with most of the deep convective bands over the western semicircle of the circulation. Microwave imagery indicates that the center is near the eastern side of the main area of deep convection, as before. Dvorak classifications from both TAFB and SAB support keeping the intensity at 35 kt. The storm will be moving over warmer waters with fairly low shear for the next day or two, so some strengthening is anticipated in the short term. Later in the forecast period, increasing westerly shear should cause weakening. The official intensity forecast is similar to the model consensus through 48 hours, and follows the trends shown by the ECMWF and GFS global guidance thereafter. The latter models suggest that Kirk could open up into a trough when it nears the Caribbean. Center fixes indicate that Kirk has been accelerating westward and the initial motion estimate is now 280/18 kt. A well-defined mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should cause an even faster westward motion over the next few days. Near the end of the forecast period, a weakness in the ridge is likely to lead to a slowing of the forward speed. The official forecast is a blend of the latest simple and corrected model consensus forecast tracks and is also similar to the previous NHC track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 9.3N 30.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 9.8N 33.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 10.2N 37.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 10.5N 41.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 10.7N 45.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 11.2N 52.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 12.3N 57.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 13.5N 62.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Storm Kirk (AT2/AL122018)
2018-09-23 16:31:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KIRK MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 23 the center of Kirk was located near 9.3, -30.2 with movement W at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Kirk Public Advisory Number 5
2018-09-23 16:31:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018 333 WTNT32 KNHC 231430 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kirk Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018 ...KIRK MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.3N 30.2W ABOUT 545 MI...880 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was located near latitude 9.3 North, longitude 30.2 West. Kirk is moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h). An even faster westward motion across the tropical Atlantic is expected through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two. Weakening is likely during the middle to latter part of the week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Kirk Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2018-09-23 16:31:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 23 2018 331 FONT12 KNHC 231430 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122018 1500 UTC SUN SEP 23 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) PORT OF SPAIN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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