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Tropical Storm Kirk Public Advisory Number 10
2018-09-26 10:36:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 26 2018 064 WTNT32 KNHC 260836 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kirk Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 500 AM AST Wed Sep 26 2018 ...KIRK REGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.8N 52.7W ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM E OF BARBADOS ABOUT 595 MI...955 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Barbados. The government of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for St. Lucia. The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for St. Vincent and the Grenadines. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Lucia A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the central and northern Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Kirk as additional warnings or watches could be issued later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was located near latitude 11.8 North, longitude 52.7 West. Kirk is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected through Friday night. On the forecast track, Kirk is expected to approach Barbados and the northern Windward Islands Thursday afternoon and move into the eastern Caribbean Sea by Friday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast until Kirk moves through the central Lesser Antilles Thursday afternoon and evening. Rapid weakening is expected on Friday after Kirk emerges over the Caribbean Sea. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning area by Thursday afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Thursday afternoon or evening. RAINFALL: Kirk is expected to produce total rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with maximum totals of 10 across the northern Windward and southern Leeward Islands from Barbados and St. Lucia northward across Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Kirk Forecast Advisory Number 10
2018-09-26 10:36:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 26 2018 063 WTNT22 KNHC 260836 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122018 0900 UTC WED SEP 26 2018 WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS. THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA. THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * ST. LUCIA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KIRK AS ADDITIONAL WARNINGS OR WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 52.7W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 52.7W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 51.9W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 12.4N 55.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 13.2N 57.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 14.1N 60.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 14.8N 62.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 15.7N 67.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 15.9N 71.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 16.0N 76.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 52.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Remnants of Kirk Graphics
2018-09-24 16:37:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 24 Sep 2018 14:37:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 24 Sep 2018 15:21:52 GMT
Remnants of Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 9
2018-09-24 16:34:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 24 2018 137 WTNT42 KNHC 241434 TCDAT2 Remnants Of Kirk Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 24 2018 Analysis of the directional ambiguities from a recent ASCAT scatterometer overpass indicated that the system lacks the closed circulation that is a prerequisite for tropical cyclone status. Therefore, advisories are being discontinued at this time. The ASCAT data showed that the system is now a sharp trough accompanied by an area of gale-force winds that will be handled in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. The remnants of Kirk will be monitored during the next few days in case regeneration into a tropical cyclone should occur. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 10.0N 39.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Remnants of Kirk Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2018-09-24 16:34:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 24 2018 146 FONT12 KNHC 241434 PWSAT2 REMNANTS OF KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122018 1500 UTC MON SEP 24 2018 AT 1500Z THE REMNANTS OF KIRK WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.0 NORTH ...LONGITUDE 39.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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