je.st
news
Tag: kirk
Tropical Storm Kirk Graphics
2018-09-23 22:34:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 23 Sep 2018 20:34:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 23 Sep 2018 21:22:06 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
kirk
Tropical Storm Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 6
2018-09-23 22:32:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 23 2018 217 WTNT42 KNHC 232032 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 500 PM AST Sun Sep 23 2018 Deep convection has diminished near the estimated center of Kirk, and the main thunderstorm activity is occurring over the northwestern and western peripheries of the circulation. This has the appearance of an arc cloud, suggesting that some drier mid-level air has been entrained into the tropical cyclone. Since the system should be moving over warmer waters and through low vertical shear for the next day or so, some strengthening is anticipated into early this weak. Later in the forecast period, Kirk should be encountering increasing shear associated with strong upper-level westerlies over the Caribbean, and this will likely cause weakening. The official forecast is close to the latest Florida State University Superensemble prediction and is the same as the previous NHC forecast. Based on the latest center fixes, the motion continues swiftly toward the west, or about 280/20 kt. A mid-level subtropical ridge to the north of Kirk should steer the tropical cyclone westward at a fairly fast clip for the next couple of days. By days 3-4, the ridge weakens a bit and Kirk should slow its forward motion somewhat. The official track forecast has not changed much from the previous advisory and is close to the latest corrected consensus model, HCCA, prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 9.5N 32.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 9.9N 35.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 10.2N 39.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 10.4N 43.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 10.6N 47.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 11.6N 53.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 12.9N 58.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 28/1800Z 14.0N 63.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Summary for Tropical Storm Kirk (AT2/AL122018)
2018-09-23 22:31:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KIRK MOVING FAST TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Sep 23 the center of Kirk was located near 9.5, -32.3 with movement W at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
kirk
Tropical Storm Kirk Public Advisory Number 6
2018-09-23 22:31:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 23 2018 409 WTNT32 KNHC 232031 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kirk Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 500 PM AST Sun Sep 23 2018 ...KIRK MOVING FAST TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.5N 32.3W ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was located near latitude 9.5 North, longitude 32.3 West. Kirk is moving toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h). A rapid westward motion across the tropical Atlantic is expected to continue through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two. Weakening is likely during the middle to latter part of the week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm Kirk Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2018-09-23 22:31:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 23 2018 427 FONT12 KNHC 232031 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122018 2100 UTC SUN SEP 23 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 7(16) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) PORT OF SPAIN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Sites : [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] next »