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Tropical Storm Kirk Public Advisory Number 3
2018-09-23 04:43:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 22 2018 484 WTNT32 KNHC 230243 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kirk Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 22 2018 ...KIRK MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.0N 26.4W ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was located near latitude 9.0 North, longitude 26.4 West. Kirk is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A faster westward motion across the deep tropical Atlantic Ocean is expected Sunday through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast through Sunday night, with little change in intensity expected on Monday and Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Kirk Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2018-09-23 04:43:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 23 2018 486 FONT12 KNHC 230243 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122018 0300 UTC SUN SEP 23 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 26.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Kirk Forecast Advisory Number 3
2018-09-23 04:42:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 23 2018 499 WTNT22 KNHC 230242 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122018 0300 UTC SUN SEP 23 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 26.4W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 26.4W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.8N 25.6W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 9.4N 28.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 9.9N 33.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 10.1N 37.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 10.2N 41.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 10.6N 49.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 11.8N 55.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 13.3N 60.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.0N 26.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Kirk Graphics
2018-09-22 22:40:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 22 Sep 2018 20:40:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 22 Sep 2018 21:28:08 GMT
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Tropical Storm Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 2
2018-09-22 22:38:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 22 2018 925 WTNT42 KNHC 222038 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 500 PM AST Sat Sep 22 2018 The convection associated with Kirk is currently disorganized, with the majority of it in a cluster to the west of the center. Most of the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are in the 30-35 kt range, so the initial intensity remains 35 kt for this advisory. The forecast track takes Kirk over SSTs around 27C for the next 36 h or so with generally low shear, which appears favorable for gradual strengthening. However, there is a possibility that entrainment of dry air from an area of African dust present to the north of Kirk may allow less intensification than currently forecast. From 36-72 h, there is some divergence in the intensity guidance between the SHIPS and LGEM models, which forecast strengthening into a hurricane, and the dynamical models, which forecast little additional strengthening. The intensity forecast leans toward the dynamical models during that period. After 72 h, Kirk should encounter increasing westerly shear and gradually weaken. The intensity forecast, which is unchanged from the previous forecast, lies a little above the intensity consensus IVCN. The initial motion is now 290/13. The subtropical ridge to the north of the storm should steer Kirk quickly westward for the next 72 h or so, with forward speeds reaching 20-25 kt. Later in the forecast period, Kirk should turn west-northwestward with a decrease in forward speed as it nears a developing weakness in the ridge near and to the east of the Lesser Antilles. The new forecast track, which is closest to the HCCA consensus model, is shifted a little to the north of the previous track. However, it continues to lie on the south side of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 8.6N 24.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 9.1N 27.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 9.5N 31.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 9.7N 35.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 9.8N 40.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 10.5N 48.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 11.5N 54.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 13.0N 59.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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