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Summary for Tropical Storm Kirk (AT2/AL122018)
2018-09-22 22:38:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KIRK MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 22 the center of Kirk was located near 8.6, -24.8 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Kirk Public Advisory Number 2
2018-09-22 22:38:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 22 2018 915 WTNT32 KNHC 222038 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kirk Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 500 PM AST Sat Sep 22 2018 ...KIRK MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...8.6N 24.8W ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM S OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was located near latitude 8.6 North, longitude 24.8 West. Kirk is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and a westward to west-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is expected to continue through tonight. A faster westward motion across the deep tropical Atlantic Ocean is expected Sunday through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast through Sunday, with little change in intensity expected on Monday and Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Kirk Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2018-09-22 22:38:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 22 2018 857 FONT12 KNHC 222038 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122018 2100 UTC SAT SEP 22 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 8.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 24.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Kirk Forecast Advisory Number 2
2018-09-22 22:37:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 22 2018 746 WTNT22 KNHC 222037 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122018 2100 UTC SAT SEP 22 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.6N 24.8W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.6N 24.8W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.4N 24.1W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 9.1N 27.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 9.5N 31.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 9.7N 35.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 9.8N 40.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 10.5N 48.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 11.5N 54.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 13.0N 59.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 8.6N 24.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 1
2018-09-22 16:36:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 22 2018 310 WTNT42 KNHC 221436 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 22 2018 The area of low pressure located well south of the Cabo Verde Islands now has a well-defined center and enough organized deep convection to be considered a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is set to 35 kt based on data from recent ASCAT passes that showed an area of 30-35 kt winds northwest of the center. Kirk will be moving over SSTs around 27C for the next 36 hours or so with generally low shear, which should allow for some gradual strengthening. After that time, the SSTs increase quickly along the forecast track, but the SHIPS model and global model fields show the vertical shear increasing, in part due to the very fast low-level easterly flow. In addition, the GFS and ECMWF global models don't show much development of the cyclone during the forecast period. As a result of these factors, little change in strength is forecast after 48 hours. The NHC forecast is close to the HCCA consensus aid through 48 hours and is near IVCN afterward. The initial motion estimate is 280/12, but has the usual uncertainty for a system in the early stages of development. The cyclone is expected to be steered very quickly westward at low latitudes with forward speeds reaching 20-25 kt over the next 72 hours to the south of a mid-level ridge. Late in the period, some gain in latitude and a slight decrease in forward speed are shown as a weakness in the ridge develops to the east of the Lesser Antilles. The initial NHC track forecast is close to HCCA and a little south of the TVCA consensus, giving a little more weight to the GFS and ECMWF, which lie on the south side of the track guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 8.3N 23.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 8.8N 25.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 9.3N 29.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 9.4N 34.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 9.6N 38.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 10.3N 46.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 11.0N 53.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 12.5N 58.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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