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Tropical Storm Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 12

2018-09-26 22:32:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 26 2018 180 WTNT42 KNHC 262032 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 500 PM AST Wed Sep 26 2018 The storm's cloud pattern now has a more comma-shaped appearance, with the estimated center near the western edge of the comma head. Some low-cloud lines are becoming exposed over the western portion of the circulation, which is suggestive of some increase in vertical shear. Based on flight-level and uncontaminated SFMR winds from the Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission a few hours ago, the intensity is kept at 50 kt for this advisory. The dynamical guidance is in good agreement that the shear will increase significantly in 18 to 24 hours, and a weakening trend is likely to commence around that time. The system is predicted to dissipate due to the strong shear over the Caribbean Sea in about 5 days, and several of the reliable global models show this occurring even sooner. The official intensity forecast is similar to the latest multi-model consensus, IVCN, which has been a good performer in the Atlantic basin so far this year. Kirk is moving west-northwestward, or 285/16 kt. A pronounced mid-level ridge over the southwestern North Atlantic and Florida should continue to steer Kirk on a west-northwestward to westward heading through the forecast period. Based on the latest track model guidance, the official forecast is somewhat faster than the previous one and now takes Kirk over the Lesser Antilles in about 24 hours. On this basis, the arrival of tropical-storm-force winds in the warning area is a few hours earlier than implied by the previous advisory. For specific timing information, please consult the latest arrival time of tropical-storm-force winds graphic on the National Hurricane Center website. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 12.7N 55.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 13.5N 57.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 14.4N 60.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 15.1N 62.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 15.7N 65.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 16.3N 70.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 15.7N 74.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm Kirk Public Advisory Number 12

2018-09-26 22:32:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 26 2018 179 WTNT32 KNHC 262032 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kirk Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 500 PM AST Wed Sep 26 2018 ...KIRK EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES TOMORROW AFTERNOON... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.7N 55.7W ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM E OF BARBADOS ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Lucia * Dominica * Martinique * Guadeloupe A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the central and northern Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Kirk as additional warnings or watches could be issued tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 55.7 West. Kirk is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Kirk will move over the Lesser Antilles within the Tropical Storm Warning area Thursday afternoon. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast until Kirk crosses the Lesser Antilles, followed by weakening over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning area by Thursday afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Thursday afternoon. RAINFALL: Kirk is expected to produce total rainfall of 4 to 6 inches across the northern Windward and southern Leeward Islands with isolated maximum totals up to 10 inches across Martinique and Dominica. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm Kirk Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12

2018-09-26 22:32:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 26 2018 248 FONT12 KNHC 262032 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122018 2100 UTC WED SEP 26 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) BARBUDA 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ANTIGUA 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) GUADELOUPE 34 X 7( 7) 17(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) AVES 34 X 2( 2) 13(15) 19(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) AVES 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DOMINICA 34 1 15(16) 34(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) DOMINICA 50 X 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MARTINIQUE 34 1 25(26) 31(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) MARTINIQUE 50 X 4( 4) 8(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) SAINT LUCIA 34 1 12(13) 13(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) SAINT LUCIA 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT VINCENT 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BARBADOS 34 2 19(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Storm Kirk Forecast Advisory Number 12

2018-09-26 22:31:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 26 2018 068 WTNT22 KNHC 262031 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122018 2100 UTC WED SEP 26 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * ST. LUCIA * DOMINICA * MARTINIQUE * GUADELOUPE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KIRK AS ADDITIONAL WARNINGS OR WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 55.7W AT 26/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 55.7W AT 26/2100Z AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 55.0W FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 13.5N 57.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 14.4N 60.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 15.1N 62.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 15.7N 65.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 16.3N 70.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 15.7N 74.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 55.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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