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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 13
2020-09-10 04:33:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 10 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 100232 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0300 UTC THU SEP 10 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 48.1W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT.......180NE 60SE 60SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 90SE 180SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 48.1W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 47.6W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 21.3N 49.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 50SE 30SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 21.4N 51.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...130NE 40SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.9N 53.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 30SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 22.8N 54.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 30SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 24.1N 55.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 30SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 25.8N 57.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 30SE 0SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 29.0N 62.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 31.0N 65.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 48.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Paulette Graphics
2020-09-09 22:33:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 09 Sep 2020 20:33:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 09 Sep 2020 20:33:12 GMT
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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 12
2020-09-09 22:31:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 09 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 092031 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 PM AST Wed Sep 09 2020 Paulette's satellite presentation has not changed since this morning, with the center exposed just to the south of the deepest convection. Between this morning's ASCAT pass and the most recent satellite classifications from TAFB and SAB, which are unchanged at T3.0 and T3.5, respectively, the maximum wind estimate remains 50 kt. Paulette continues to move into an area of stronger southwesterly shear, which is now estimated to be 25-30 kt, and this shear is likely to increase further to 30-35 kt within the next 24 hours. As a result, Paulette is expected to begin weakening by Thursday, and the NHC forecast is embedded among the tightly clustered intensity guidance during the first 2-3 days. The shear is expected to relax gradually from 48 hours and beyond and turn out of the southeast, which should allow for some restrengthening on days 3 through 5 when shear magnitudes could go as low as 10 kt. The HWRF and COAMPS-TC models in particular take full advantage of this environment and bring Paulette to hurricane intensity by day 4. The updated NHC intensity forecast is not nearly this aggressive, but it does indicate a little more strengthening at the end of the forecast period than has been shown in previous forecasts, lying closest to the statistical-dynamical guidance. Model environmental trends will be monitored, and additional intensity adjustments at the end of the forecast period will be made accordingly in subsequent forecasts. Paulette remains on a west-northwestward course (295/9 kt), located to the south of low- to mid-level ridging which extends across the central and western Atlantic. The track models suggest that when the cyclone weakens in a day or two, lower-level winds could steer the cyclone westward for a short time. However, a combination of the ridge weakening and Paulette's expected re-strengthening should cause the cyclone to turn northwestward in 2-3 days and maintain that trajectory through the end of the forecast period. The only significant change from the previous forecast is that the 5-day forecast point has been shifted westward, with the GFS, ECMWF, HWRF, and HCCA models all lying on the left side of the guidance envelope by that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 20.5N 47.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 20.9N 48.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 21.4N 50.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 21.6N 52.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 22.3N 54.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 12/0600Z 23.3N 55.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 24.8N 56.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 13/1800Z 28.0N 60.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 14/1800Z 30.5N 64.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Paulette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2020-09-09 22:30:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 09 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 092030 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 2100 UTC WED SEP 09 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Summary for Tropical Storm Paulette (AT2/AL172020)
2020-09-09 22:30:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...PAULETTE FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BUT COULD THEN RESTRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Sep 9 the center of Paulette was located near 20.5, -47.4 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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