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Tropical Storm Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26

2018-10-02 22:34:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018 269 FONT13 KNHC 022034 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 2100 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Summary for Tropical Storm Leslie (AT3/AL132018)

2018-10-02 22:34:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...LESLIE ALMOST A HURRICANE... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Oct 2 the center of Leslie was located near 30.1, -56.4 with movement SSW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

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Tropical Storm Leslie Public Advisory Number 26

2018-10-02 22:34:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Oct 02 2018 841 WTNT33 KNHC 022034 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 PM AST Tue Oct 02 2018 ...LESLIE ALMOST A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.1N 56.4W ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 205 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 30.1 North, longitude 56.4 West. Leslie is moving toward the south-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through early Wednesday. A turn to the north is forecast to occur late Wednesday into Thursday, followed by a motion toward the north-northeast on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next day or two, and Leslie is forecast to become a hurricane tonight or early Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect portions of the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, and the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells are expected to increase near the coasts of New England and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 26

2018-10-02 22:34:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018 842 WTNT23 KNHC 022034 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 2100 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 56.4W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 205 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 0SW 80NW. 34 KT.......140NE 100SE 160SW 200NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 210SE 420SW 540NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 56.4W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 56.2W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 29.7N 56.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 80NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 150SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 29.5N 56.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 140SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 30.7N 56.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 32.6N 56.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 36.3N 56.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...200NE 190SE 180SW 170NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 37.2N 54.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 37.0N 51.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.1N 56.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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