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Subtropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 5
2018-09-24 16:34:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 24 2018 138 WTNT43 KNHC 241434 TCDAT3 Subtropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 24 2018 Conventional satellite imagery shows little change in Leslie's cloud pattern during the past several hours with the exception of a few new isolated thunderstorms developing near the surface center. Accordingly, the initial intensity for this advisory is kept at 35 kt. The statistical intensity guidance and the large-scale models show Leslie commencing a strengthening trend in 24 hours as a mid-latitude baroclinic system digs southeastward toward the cyclone. Some of the models also indicate that Leslie, after completing an extratropical transition in around 48 hours, will deepen and generate a large area of gale force winds, particularly in the northwest quadrant. The NHC intensity forecast reflects this scenario and is just below the IVCN intensity consensus. The initial motion is estimated to be an eastward drift, or 090/4 kt within the increasing mid-level westerly steering flow. A turn to the east-northeast is forecast as an approaching mid-latitude trough and associated cold front approaches from the northwest over the central Atlantic. The deterministic guidance indicate that the aforementioned baroclinic system will overtake Leslie near the 48 hour period, and influence a transition to a non-tropical low pressure system. Subsequently, the GFS and the European models still show extratropical Leslie as the primary system and deepening with time. For now, the official forecast will indicate a merging scenario, but succeeding advisories may include extratropical low forecast points through day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 32.5N 48.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 32.5N 47.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 32.4N 45.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 32.3N 42.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 33.6N 39.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 27/1200Z...MERGED WITH FRONT AND LARGER LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Subtropical Storm Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2018-09-24 16:34:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 24 2018 144 FONT13 KNHC 241434 PWSAT3 SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 1500 UTC MON SEP 24 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Summary for Subtropical Storm Leslie (AT3/AL132018)
2018-09-24 16:34:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LESLIE DRIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 24 the center of Leslie was located near 32.5, -48.0 with movement E at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Subtropical Storm Leslie Public Advisory Number 5
2018-09-24 16:34:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 24 2018 115 WTNT33 KNHC 241434 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 24 2018 ...LESLIE DRIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.5N 48.0W ABOUT 1240 MI...1995 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 32.5 North, longitude 48.0 West. The storm is moving toward the east near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday night. A turn toward the east-northeast with an increase in forward speed is forecast on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through tonight. Leslie is forecast to strengthen by mid-week while it interacts and eventually merges with a frontal system. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Subtropical Storm Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 5
2018-09-24 16:34:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 24 2018 114 WTNT23 KNHC 241434 TCMAT3 SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 1500 UTC MON SEP 24 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 48.0W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 240SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 48.0W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 48.2W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 32.5N 47.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 32.4N 45.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 20SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 32.3N 42.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 33.6N 39.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 40SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z...MERGED WITH FRONT AND LARGER LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.5N 48.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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